电力系统自动化2025，Vol.49Issue(20)：62-72,11.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20250427004
建筑虚拟电厂可信调节能力概念与量化方法
Concept and Quantification Method for Credible Regulation Capability of Building Virtual Power Plants
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid expansion of virtual power plants(VPPs)in scale,the existing quantification results of regulation capability for VPPs under multiple uncertainties fail to meet the requirements of risk-aware dispatch of power systems and bidding in electricity markets.Building VPP,as an important form of VPPs,possess the characteristics of rapid regulation capability and high reliability by aggregating building load resources.Among these resources,as the primary regulation equipment in building VPPs,the quantification of credible regulation capability for air conditioning is of significant importance for the reliable operation of building VPPs.To this end,the concept and a quantification method for the credible regulation capability of building VPPs are proposed by taking air conditioning as an example.Firstly,the quantification framework of credible regulation capability for building VPPs is constructed based on hybrid data-physical-driven model,and the concept of credible regulation capability is proposed,and the connection of the credible regulation capability interval is clarified.Secondly,a probabilistic prediction model for the energy consumption baseline is developed based on the Informer architecture and conformal quantile regression(Informer-CQR),By extracting temporal features,asymmetric residual sets are constructed to generate reliable baseline probability intervals.Furthermore,based on a thermal transfer model of building air conditioning,the upward and downward regulation capabilities of building air conditioning are quantified at different confidence levels.Finally,simulation analysis is are conducted with actual data from a public building in Macau,China.The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively quantify the credible regulation capability of building air conditioning within predefined confidence intervals,and reveal the dynamic fluctuation behavior of the regulation capability of air conditioning through quantification intervals.关键词
虚拟电厂/建筑/空调/可信调节能力/量化/概率预测Key words
virtual power plant(VPP)/building/air conditioning/credible regulation capability/quantification/probability prediction引用本文复制引用
蒋思宇,惠红勋,胡厚鹏,王晗,宋永华..建筑虚拟电厂可信调节能力概念与量化方法[J].电力系统自动化,2025,49(20):62-72,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52407075) （52407075）
澳门特别行政区科学技术发展基金资助项目(001/2024/SKL) （001/2024/SKL）
澳门大学项目(CPG2025-00023-IOTSC). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52407075),Science and Technology Development Fund of Macau SAR,China(No.001/2024/SKL),and Chair Professor Research Grant of University of Macau(No.CPG2025-00023-IOTSC). （CPG2025-00023-IOTSC）
