干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(10)：1747-1759,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.796
新疆极端气温冷(暖)指数历史变化及未来情景预估
Historical changes and future scenario projections of extreme temperature cold(warm)index in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
To examine the historical and projected variations of cold and warm extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang,China under global warming,this study provides a scientific basis for developing climate adaptation strategies.Using observational data from 52 meteorological stations in Xinjiang(1960-2021)and Coupled mod-el intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)climate model outputs(1960-2100),models with superior simula-tion accuracy were selected.Multi-model ensemble means were then applied to analyze four cold and four warm extreme temperature indices during the historical period and under three future scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.The results show that:(1)From 1960 to 2021,cold indices significantly decreased,while warm in-dices increased,with nighttime changes exceeding daytime variations,reflecting an overall regional warming trend.(2)Future projections(2025-2100)indicate continued decreases in cold indices and increases in warm in-dices across all scenarios,with the SSP5-8.5 pathway exhibiting the most pronounced changes.(3)Spatially,cold and warm indices change consistently across Xinjiang,with both regional differences and commonalities.Summer days and warm nights exhibit strong similarity under all scenarios,whereas frost days,cool nights,cool days,and growing season length show higher consistency under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.Xinjiang is already un-dergoing an extreme warming process,which is expected to intensify.Strengthening adaptive capacity is there-fore essential to ensure sustainable regional development.关键词
CMIP6气候模式/极端气温指数/时空变化/气候倾向率/新疆Key words
CMIP6 models/extreme temperatures events/spatial-temporal differentiation/climate tendency rate/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
杨扬,常伟,张兴东..新疆极端气温冷(暖)指数历史变化及未来情景预估[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(10):1747-1759,13.基金项目
国家自然科学青年基金项目(42401094)资助 （42401094）
