航天器环境工程2025，Vol.42Issue(5)：504-515,12.DOI:10.12126/see.2025071
基于AeolusStorm模型的航天发射场强对流天气分析与影响风险预测
Analysis and risk prediction of severe convective weather at space launch sites using the AeolusStorm model
赵煊泽 1焦子龙 2靖永涛 1高晓颖3
作者信息
- 1. 北京工商大学数学与统计学院,北京 100048
- 2. 可靠性与环境工程技术重点实验室,北京 100094||北京卫星环境工程研究所,北京 100094
- 3. 北京航天自动控制研究所,北京 100854
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Severe convective weather is a critical meteorological factor that affects the safety of space launches,particularly in tropical coastal regions characterized by frequent and highly variable atmospheric conditions.To enhance the meteorological risk prevention and control capabilities of launch sites,a convective weather early warning method based on the AeolusStorm model was proposed.The model integrates multi-source meteorological data,including wind field data from the ESA Aeolus satellite,radiosonde observations,and ground-based radar measurements.A random forest regression algorithm was employed to establish a dual risk assessment framework consisting of a risk index(RiskIndex),which quantifies the current atmospheric instability,and a future index(FutureIndex),which predicts forthcoming meteorological trends.Validation using multi-source observations from the Wenchang Space Launch Site(2020-2023)showed that the AeolusStorm model outperformed traditional statistical methods in nonlinear fitting and temperature prediction.The model effectively identified severe convective weather under complex tropical coastal conditions and provided quantitative decision support for launch safety.关键词
航天发射场/强对流天气/风险预测/机器学习/探空数据Key words
space launch sites/severe convective weather/risk prediction/machine learning/radiosonde data分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
赵煊泽,焦子龙,靖永涛,高晓颖..基于AeolusStorm模型的航天发射场强对流天气分析与影响风险预测[J].航天器环境工程,2025,42(5):504-515,12.
