南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.25Issue(5)：498-504,7.DOI:10.7655/NYDXBSSS250218
安徽省医疗卫生服务能力与区域经济发展的耦合协调及其预测分析
Coupling coordination and predictive analysis of healthcare service capacity and regional economic development in Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the panel data of Anhui Province and its three major regions of southern,northern and central Anhui from 2016 to 2023,this study used a coupling coordination model and combination forecasting to evaluate the coupling coordination status of healthcare and economic development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,while predicting the evolutionary trends for the 14th Five-Year Plan and 15th Five-Year Plan period.Through the construction of an evaluation system comprising 17 indicators,with the weight determined by the entropy method,and the coupling coordination degree of three periods is calculated.The key indicators from 2024 to 2030 were forecasted by combining the Grey GM(1,1)model and the ARIMA model.The results show that the healthcare service capacity in Anhui Province has long lagged behind the regional economic growth and the coupling coordination degree exhibits a pattern of initial increase followed by decline,indicating insufficient long-term sustainability that requiring further strengthened.Significant disparities existed across regions,with Central Anhui showing a clear advantage while the northern and southern regions lag behind.Based on these,it is vital to establish a dynamic policy guarantee system,improve the public health emergency management system,promote regional cooperation for a provincial linkage mechanism.At the same time,the study recommends innovating the investment mechanism while deepening the system reform to promote the coordinated development of healthcare services and economy.关键词
医疗卫生服务能力/区域经济/耦合协调度/灰色预测模型Key words
healthcare service capacity/regional economy/coupling coordination degree/Grey forecast model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王洁,张静..安徽省医疗卫生服务能力与区域经济发展的耦合协调及其预测分析[J].南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,25(5):498-504,7.基金项目
安徽省研究生质量工程课程思政示范课程项目"公共管理学"(2023szsfkc086) （2023szsfkc086）
安徽省研究生联合培养示范基地项目"安徽省健康文化旅游产业促进会研究生联合培养示范基地"(2024lhpysfjd049) （2024lhpysfjd049）
安徽省教育厅人文社科重大项目"中医药助力'大黄山'国际休闲度假旅游目的地建设对策研究"(2022AH040070) （2022AH040070）
