水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(9)：95-107,13.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.09.007
基于多情景的河北省水利措施碳减排贡献度分析
Analysis of carbon emission reduction contribution of water conservancy measures in Hebei Province under multiple scenarios
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Water conservancy plays a critical role in"dual carbon"strategy.Exploring the carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures is essential for promoting the optimization of energy structure and achieving carbon neutrality.[Methods]Based on the LEAP model and combined with economic and social development policies,scenario analysis was adopt-ed to establish the baseline,emission reduction,and enhanced emission reduction scenarios.By employing five emission reduc-tion measures-increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation,expanding geothermal water utilization,enhancing blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks,promoting water conservation in residential and industrial sectors-the study predicted and analyzed carbon emissions and the contribution of water conservancy measures to carbon reduction under each scenario in Hebei Province from 2025 to 2060.[Results]The result showed that under the baseline scenario,Hebei Province's total carbon emis-sions would reach 890.54 MtCO2e by 2060,with no peak observed during this period.Under the emission reduction scenario,annual carbon emissions would decrease compared to the baseline,but the overall trend would remain the same.Under the en-hanced emission reduction scenario,carbon emissions would peak at 837.12 MtCO2e in 2030 and decrease to 831.46 MtCO2e by 2060.The carbon reduction potential of water conservancy measures would reach 59.08 MtCO2e,accounting for 6.63％of total carbon emissions.In terms of emission reduction contribution,increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power generation and ex-panding the use of geothermal resources were the most effective water conservancy measures,contributing nearly 90％of the total carbon reduction.Although the contributions of blue carbon ecosystem carbon sinks and water-saving measures were relatively small,they still played a positive role in emission reduction.[Conclusion]The result indicate that water conservancy measures have significant carbon reduction potential in achieving the"dual carbon"goals in Hebei Province.In the future,water conser-vancy measures should be further optimized,particularly by strengthening the development and utilization of hydroelectric power and geothermal resources,while also promoting blue carbon ecosystems and water-saving measures to maximize their role in car-bon reduction.Additionally,the effective coordination of these measures in both time and space,through systematic and coordi-nated operations,is essential to achieve the expected emission reduction outcomes.This study provides reference for Hebei Prov-ince to fully leverage the carbon reduction role of the water conservancy sector and achieve the"dual carbon"goals as early as possible.关键词
碳排放/减排潜力/水利行业/LEAP模型/情景分析/影响因素Key words
carbon emissions/mitigation potential/water conservancy sector/LEAP model/scenario analysis/influencing fac-tors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
明宇,潘增辉,魏丽贤,杨飒,刘宏权..基于多情景的河北省水利措施碳减排贡献度分析[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(9):95-107,13.基金项目
河北省水利科技计划(2023-41) （2023-41）
河北省重点研发项目(223742205D) （223742205D）
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401404) （2016YFC0401404）
