生态环境学报2025，Vol.34Issue(11)：1690-1704,15.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.11.003
新疆天山地区净生态系统生产力时空动态及归因分析
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Attribution Analysis of Net Ecosystem Productivity in the Tianshan Region
摘要
Abstract
Net ecosystem productivity(NEP)measures the carbon sequestration capacity of regional ecosystems.Based on MODIS NPP data,the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation NEP in the Tianshan region from 2001 to 2024 were analyzed using a soil microbial respiration model.The ridge regression model combined with residual analysis was used to quantitatively assess the contributions of different climatic factors and human activities to NEP.The results indicate that:1)The NEP in the Tianshan region showed a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the west and low in the east,with a mean value of C 200 g·m-2;NEP overall showed a fluctuating but increasing trend,growing at a rate of C 0.73 g·m-2·a-1,and in the future,NEP in most areas of the Tianshan region will also show an increasing trend.2)Swamps,broad-leaved forests,and grasslands had higher NEP,with mean values of C 284,247 and 244 g·m-2,respectively;swamps,and cultivated vegetation had higher growth rates(C 1.58 and 0.97 g·m-2·a-1,respectively),and in the future,NEP for each vegetation type will predominantly show an increasing trend.3)The average contributions of precipitation,soil moisture,solar radiation,and air temperature to NEP were 22.0%,34.8%,17.8%,and 25.4%,respectively.Precipitation change had an overall negative contribution to NEP,whereas changes in soil moisture,solar radiation,and air temperature had overall positive contributions.4)Meadows,grasslands,alpine vegetation,shrubs,deserts,broad-leaved forests,and coniferous forests were soil moisture-driven;swamps and other vegetation types were temperature-driven;and cultivated vegetation was precipitation driven.5)Changes in NEP in the Tianshan region were jointly influenced by climate and human activities,with relative contributions of 61.6%and 38.4%,respectively.Grasslands and swamps were most affected by climate change,whereas alpine vegetation and other plant types were most affected by human activities.关键词
净生态系统生产力(NEP)/时空动态/岭回归/驱动因素/天山地区Key words
net ecosystem productivity(NEP)/spatiotemporal dynamics/ridge regression/driving factors/Tianshan region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张成驰,姚慧芳,马秀枝..新疆天山地区净生态系统生产力时空动态及归因分析[J].生态环境学报,2025,34(11):1690-1704,15.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0403) （2022xjkk0403）
