西安科技大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：845-854,10.DOI:10.13800/j.cnki.xakjdxxb.2025.0501
城市洪涝应急物资需求预测
Emergency material demand forecasting for urban floods
摘要
Abstract
In order to mitigate flood disaster impacts,optimize emergency material allocation mecha-nisms,and ensure scientific post-disaster material distribution,supply for disaster-stricken areas' needs,as well as the affected people's basic livelihood and reconstruction.A case-based reasoning(CBR)model is developed for forecasting emergency material needs in urban flood scenarios.The mod-el is validated using the July 20,2021 extreme rainfall event in Zhengzhou as a representative case.The results indicate that the model achieves a relative error of 1.44％in predicting the number of people requiring emergency evacuation and resettlement,demonstrating high accuracy and practical applicabil-ity.The geographic characteristics and historical disaster data are identified as key influencing factors.By retrieving and adapting similar past cases,the model effectively leverages historical experience to enhance decision-making under uncertainty,thereby improving the efficiency and precision of emergen-cy response;Furthermore,the proposed framework offers operational feasibility and exhibits potential for extension to other natural disaster types,such as earthquakes and typhoons.Compared with traditional methods,the case-based reasoning approach provides better adaptability to the uncertainty of material demand in emergencies and offers a strong support for the scientific allocation of resources and im-proved disaster recovery efforts.关键词
城市洪涝灾害/案例推理/应急物资分配/需求预测/灾后恢复Key words
urban flood disaster/case-based reasoning/emergency supply distribution/demand predic-tion/disaster recovery分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
罗振敏,申佳童,潘竞超,苏彬,刘利涛..城市洪涝应急物资需求预测[J].西安科技大学学报,2025,45(5):845-854,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52174200) （52174200）
陕西省榆林市科技计划项目(CXY-2019-139) （CXY-2019-139）
