现代医药卫生2025，Vol.41Issue(10)：2337-2345,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-5519.2025.10.016
血站MAP洗涤红细胞在需求平稳期精准供应模型的建立与验证
Establishment and verification of a precise supply model for MAP-washed red blood cells in blood station during stable demand period
摘要
Abstract
Objective To establish a precise prediction model for clinical mannitol adenine sodium di-hydrogen phosphate(MAP)washed red blood cells routine blood use period,so as to provide sufficient,time-ly,and fresh blood for clinical use.Methods The monthly use data of four blood types of washed red blood cells in Shenzhen Blood Center from 2010 to 2018 were collected.Python3.12 language was used to analyze the four blood types and establish the best time series fitting model to predict the usage of MAP washed red blood cells in 2019 and verify the prediction effect of the model.Results The best time series fitting model for the usage of A-type washed red blood cells was SARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,2)12;the usage of B-type washed red blood cells was SARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,1)12;the dosage of O-type washed red blood cells was SARIMA(2,1,1)(2,1,1)12;the dosage of AB-type washed red blood cells was SARIMA(2,1,1)(2,1,1)12.Compared with the actual values,the predicted values were all within the 95%confidence interval(95%CI),with small average relative errors.The values for type A,type B,type O,and type AB were-0.051%,-0.084%,-0.005%,and-0.077%respectively.The prediction accuracy was high and the results were reliable.Conclu-sion The SARIMA model is accurate and reliable in predicting the demand during the routine blood use period,which can play a good guiding role in the preparation of blood station inventory in the short and medium term.关键词
血站库存/甘露醇腺嘌呤磷酸二氢钠/洗涤红细胞/SARIMA模型/需求平稳期/精准供应Key words
Blood bank inventory/Mannitol adenine sodium dihydrogen phosphate/Washed red blood cells/SARIMA model/Stable demand period/Precision supply分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
唐琼,王皓飚,庄乃保..血站MAP洗涤红细胞在需求平稳期精准供应模型的建立与验证[J].现代医药卫生,2025,41(10):2337-2345,9.基金项目
深圳市血液中心中心级课题(SZBC202313) （SZBC202313）
深圳市"医疗卫生三名工程"项目(SZSM202311032). （SZSM202311032）
