广东海洋大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：83-89,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2025.05.011
气候变化驱动下的全球降水演变及其不均匀性研究进展
Research Progress on Global Precipitation Evolution and Its Spatial Inhomogeneity Driven by Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The paper aims to systematically review the recent progress in the study of global precipitation evolution and its spatial heterogeneity under the circumstances of climate change,focusing on elucidating the mechanisms through which global warming affects the water cycle,thereby providing a theoretical foundation for enhancing precipitation variability prediction capabilities.[Method]The review summarizes the physical connection between global warming and the water cycle,outlines the main characteristics of global precipitation changes by observations and models,and introduces recent methods and frameworks used to quantify precipitation inhomogeneity.[Results]The global water cycle is accelerating,showing patterns as wet gets wetter,dry gets drier,global land aridification,and intensification of extreme precipitation.Satellite observations reveal that there has been no significant change in the global average annual precipitation,mainly due to internal change masking the trend signal by global warming.Current climate models are able to simulate the global mean annual precipitation trends,but uncertainties remain at the regional level.With the progression of global warming,it is expected that the global land mean precipitation will increase,with heightened regional and seasonal differences.Research on quantifying precipitation inhomogeneity continues to evolve,offering new technical pathways and theoretical support for understanding changes in spatial structure of exteme precipitation.[Conclusion]Based on the refined global precipitation observation networks and climate models,global precipitation research is shifting from average state analysis to the inhomogeneity structures.Future efforts should focus on improving observational data accuracy,model simulation capabilities,constraints methods,and diagnostic technology,in order to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions and support climate adaptation and risk management.关键词
气候变化/降水/不均匀性/气候预估/气候模式Key words
climate change/precipitation/inhomogeneity/climate projection/climate model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐建军,刘升源,涂石飞,梁卓轩,张邦林..气候变化驱动下的全球降水演变及其不均匀性研究进展[J].广东海洋大学学报,2025,45(5):83-89,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目(72293604) （72293604）
国家自然科学基金青年基金(42405003) （42405003）
国家自然科学基金气象联合基金(U2342225) （U2342225）
