北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.25Issue(6)：77-100,24.DOI:10.12120/bjutskxb202506077
低碳发展和能源安全边际约束下的黄河流域地区碳达峰分析
Analysis on Carbon Peak of the Yellow River Basin Area Based on the Constraints of Low-carbon Development and Energy Security Margin
摘要
Abstract
The Yellow River basin area is an important integrated energy base in China with abundant fossil energy reserves and good renewable energy utilization conditions.During the carbon peaking process,achieving its low-carbon development under the premise of ensuring China's energy security is of significant strategic importance.This study introduces the concept of energy security margin and constructs a theoretical analysis framework for energy security and low-carbon development.This paper analyzes the present situation of the Yellow River basin area in ensuring the energy security of China and accomplishing its low-carbon development.Through the extended STIRPAT model that includes the energy security margin ratio and other independent variables,this article explores the development timing issue of the above area during the transition period toward the carbon peak.Research results show that:(1)during the transition period toward the carbon peak,the increase of local fossil energy output and security margin ratio will increase the CO2 emissions in the basin area.The rapid increase of non-fossil energy utilization and security margin ratio will decrease the climbing speed of the CO2 emissions and carbon peak value;(2)During the transition period from carbon peak towards carbon neutrality,because of technological development,the relation between fossil energy security margin and CO2 emissions will gradually change from a positive correlation to a negative one,and the significant increase of non-fossil energy security margin will decrease CO2 emissions;(3)According to CO2 emission levels and efficiencies,resource endowments,and economic development levels,nine provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River basin area can be divided into four types,and show different decoupling characteristics;(4)With the concern of integrated energy security and under the baseline scenario,the CO2 emissions of the different provinces(autonomous regions)along the Yellow River basin area will peak successively from the year 2028 to the year 2033 and have different peak paths.Through a diversified and clean energy structure,innovation in energy technology,guidance in policy,and reform in the electricity market,the Yellow River basin area can achieve its tasks in ensuring national energy security and promoting the basin's low-carbon development.关键词
黄河流域地区/能源安全边际/碳达峰/扩展的STIRPAT模型/情景分析Key words
Yellow River basin area/energy security margin/carbon peak/the extended STIRPAT model/scenario analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
冯宗宪,于珺..低碳发展和能源安全边际约束下的黄河流域地区碳达峰分析[J].北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,25(6):77-100,24.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY001) （19AJY001）
陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题重点智库研究项目(2021ZD0993) （2021ZD0993）
