北京水务Issue(5)：53-58,6.DOI:10.19671/j.1673-4637.2025.05.009
1960-2023年密云水库入库径流演变规律分析
Analysis of runoff evolution in Miyun Reservoir basin from 1960 to 2023
摘要
Abstract
The analysis of multi-scale runoff evolution characteristics is an important basis for understanding the change rule of basin climatic environment and hydrological regime,as well as optimizing water resources allocation.Taking Miyun Reservoir Basin as the study area,this study comprehensively applied the Gini coefficient,Mann-Kendall trend analysis,and Morlet wavelet transform methods to analyze the multi-scale variation characteristics(including intra-annual,inter-annual,abrupt,and periodic characteristics)of inflow runoff into the basin from 1960 to 2023.The results showed that the intra-annual distribution of inflow runoff into Miyun Reservoir was relatively uneven.Since 2010,the occurrence time of the monthly runoff peak had shifted to July.The inter-annual variation of runoff was relatively large,and it showed an overall relatively significant downward trend.The years when runoff mutation points occurred were different for the whole year,flood season,and non-flood season.In general,the annual runoff and flood season runoff showed a main cycle of 38 years.The non-flood season runoff had the first and second main cycles of 25 years and 39 years respectively.Through the discrimination of the runoff variation cycle,the near future was still a wet period.By analyzing the multi-scale evolution characteristics of runoff in Miyun Reservoir Basin,this study is expected to provide a scientific basis for the rational utilization and optimal scheduling of the reservoir's water resource.关键词
小波变换/基尼系数/Mann-Kendall检验/径流演变/密云水库Key words
wavelet transform/Gini coefficient/Mann-Kendall test/runoff evolution/Miyun Reservoir分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
樊敏,卢亚静,杜龙刚,李永坤,庄妍,王宏芳,李政通,邢加宁..1960-2023年密云水库入库径流演变规律分析[J].北京水务,2025,(5):53-58,6.基金项目
北京水务青年科技骨干人才培养计划资助(BWAPT202304). （BWAPT202304）
