创新科技2025，Vol.25Issue(10)：29-39,11.DOI:10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2025.10.3
未来产业的内涵特征、核心要素与培育路径
The Intrinsic Characteristics,Core Elements,and Cultivation Pathways of Future Industries
摘要
Abstract
The development of future industries,which serve as a vital force in propelling high-quality economic growth,is marked by complexity and uncertainty.These traits make tra-ditional industrial theories unsuitable for understanding or guiding future industries.Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)Theory offers a fresh lens through which to examine future industries,highlighting aspects such as diversity,nonlinearity,and adaptability that resonate closely with the nature of these industries.Drawing on this theoretical framework,it becomes essential to dissect the inherent characteristics of future industries while identifying their key components and development pathways.Firstly,building on insights from existing studies,the essence of fu-ture industries is further clarified through the perspectives of dynamic evolution and industrial ecosystems.It is suggested that future industries represent emerging sectors fueled by advance-ments in cutting-edge technologies and transformative innovations,distinguished by their rapid evolutionary patterns and strong reliance on interconnected ecological systems.Building on this foundation,the technical and economic traits,as well as the evolving patterns of future indus-tries,are thoroughly analyzed from both dynamic and static perspectives.This analysis high-lights key characteristics,including the innovative and transformative nature of their core tech-nologies,the significant economic value and deep interconnections they create,the unpredict-ability of their growth trajectories,their collaborative development,and the ever-changing struc-ture of their industrial composition.Following this,grounded in the CAS theoretical framework,four essential components of future industries—technology,market,ecology,and policy—are identified.These components form a dynamic cycle,where technological advancements spark market needs,market demands steer resource allocation,ecological challenges prompt regula-tory policies,and supportive policies,in turn,hasten technological progress.This cycle sheds light on the complex,nonlinear interactions among these critical elements.Finally,a compre-hensive four-dimensional framework for collaborative cultivation,characterized as"technology-driven,demand-guided,ecosystem-supported,and policy-aligned",is developed from the per-spectives of technology,market,ecosystem,and policy.The proposed cultivation pathways are outlined as follows:①Technological advancements are achieved by setting up research insti-tutes and collaborative laboratories,tackling technical challenges through two key approaches—open innovation partnerships and in-depth fundamental research;②Demand anticipation is fa-cilitated through user engagement in innovation and by addressing significant societal issues,enabling strategic entry into emerging fields,creating new growth opportunities,and stimulating market needs via a sequential three-step process of"prototype testing,large-scale trials,and commercial rollout";③A"core-radiation"model for industrial clusters is established to pool innovation resources,while resource distribution is enhanced by developing computing infra-structure and refining mechanisms for data trading and intellectual property rights;④Tailored policies are implemented in stages to match the level of technological readiness,and dynamic,layered governance is reinforced through coordination with international standards.This article presents a fresh perspective on the research of future industries and offers valuable strategic guidance for policymakers and businesses.It supports China's efforts to gain a competitive edge in the global advancement of future industries.关键词
未来产业/内涵特征/核心要素/培育路径/人工智能/大数据/技术驱动/颠覆性Key words
future industries/intrinsic characteristics/core elements/cultivation pathways/artificial intelligence/big data/technology-driven/disruptive分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
闫俊周,郭婧羽..未来产业的内涵特征、核心要素与培育路径[J].创新科技,2025,25(10):29-39,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"人工智能赋能未来产业发展的机理、路径与政策研究"(24BJY023). （24BJY023）
