创新科技2025，Vol.25Issue(10)：40-60,21.DOI:10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2025.10.4
新质生产力发展水平的时空演变与区域差异研究
Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Regional Differ-ences in the Development Level of New Quality Productive Forces
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of the global technological revolution and industrial transfor-mation accelerating alongside mounting downward pressure on the global economy,vigorously developing new quality productive forces has become a pivotal strategic path for China.It en-ables China to seize the initiative in strategic development,enhance core industrial competitive-ness,and forge new international competitive advantages.However,research on constructing and statistically measuring evaluation indicator systems for new quality productive forces is still in a dynamic refinement phase.This objectively restricts the precise formulation of industrial and re-gional development policies.Based on the connotation and characteristics of new quality produc-tive forces,this paper constructs an evaluation system with eight dimensions:technological inno-vation,innovative allocation of production factors,industrial upgrading,laborers,labor re-sources,labor objects,green development,and digitalization.In the measurement stage,the Ker-nel Principal Component Analysis(KPCA)machine learning method is used to screen and opti-mize the initially built indicator system,enhancing its scientificity and rationality.Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2022,the entropy weight method measures the level of new quality productive forces.Subsequently,the Kernel density estimation method,Da-gum Gini coefficient,and Moran's I index are applied to assess the spatiotemporal evolution trends,sources of disparities,and spatial correlations of new quality productive forces.The re-search findings show that China's new quality productive forces have been on a year-by-year upward trajectory.Beijing ranks first in average value,and Jiangxi province has the highest aver-age growth rate.The eastern region outperforms the western region,with the regional develop-ment gap gradually widening,especially between the two.In terms of spatial distribution,the eastern region mainly shows"High-High(H-H)"clustering,while other regions mostly exhibit"Low-Low(L-L)"clustering.Analysis of driving factors reveals that the digitalization level plays a dominant role,followed by technological innovation.Industrial upgrading and labor resources contribute less significantly to the level of new quality productive forces.Based on these conclu-sions,this paper proposes three targeted recommendations.Firstly,promote industrial upgrad-ing,transformation,and green development.Strengthen the leading role of digital technological innovation,build an open and inclusive digital innovation ecosystem,accelerate the development of new quality productive forces,and consolidate strategic support.Secondly,break down re-gional barriers.The eastern region should lead in deepening regional cooperation,establish in-dustrial cooperation alliances,strengthen the linkage between upstream and downstream sectors of the industrial chain,achieve complementary advantages,and promote collaborative advance-ment.Thirdly,optimize spatial layout through regional functional positioning,urban agglomera-tion coordination,and dynamic monitoring of new quality productive forces development,en-abling precise resource allocation and achieving high-quality and balanced development.This paper not only analyzes the competitive industries and shortcomings of the research regions but also quantitatively evaluates the contributions of driving factors,offering references for optimiz-ing industrial policies and regional differentiated layouts.关键词
新质生产力/区域差异/时空演变/高质量发展/数字化/绿色化/科技创新/产业转型升级Key words
new quality productive forces/regional differences/spatiotemporal evolution/high-quality development/digitalization/greening/technological innovation/industry transfor-mation and upgrading分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
任庆忠,秦启珏,凌艳涛,严荥..新质生产力发展水平的时空演变与区域差异研究[J].创新科技,2025,25(10):40-60,21.基金项目
重庆市社会科学规划博士项目"'企业竞争—消费者支付—政府规制'视角下绿色技术创新研究"(2023BS025) （2023BS025）
重庆理工大学研究生教育高质量发展项目"基于消费者对于绿色产品的异质性和企业绿色创新行为——分析政府政策的制定"(gzlcx20243458). （gzlcx20243458）
