电力系统及其自动化学报2025，Vol.37Issue(10)：1-12,12.DOI:10.19635/j.cnki.csu-epsa.001589
终端电气化驱动的城市电力消费演化路径研究
Research on Evolutionary Path of Urban Electricity Consumption Driven by End-use Electrification
摘要
Abstract
After the proposal of the goal of"Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",the policy guidance for the develop-ment of electrification of end-use energy consumption in China has become increasingly clear,and the electrification process is steadily advancing.In the context of electrification development,in order to better promote the coordinated development of energy and power industries,a research method for the evolutionary path of urban electricity consump-tion is proposed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy-electricity consumption and the electrification development trend,a benchmark scenario,a policy scenario and an electrification acceleration scenario are set,respectively,and an energy-electricity consumption evolutionary model that considers the development poten-tial and carbon constraints is constructed.An analysis method for typical daily load characteristics based on the evolu-tion of industry electricity consumption characteristics is used to analyze the changing trend of load curves in key indus-tries of electricity substitution,thus reflecting the impact of electrification development on load characteristics.Finally,a first-tier city in south China is taken as an example with the consideration of factors such as the characteristics of ur-ban industrial structure,industrial development and low-carbon development policies,and the evolutionary path of ur-ban electricity consumption is put forward from four aspects,i.e.,end-use energy consumption,electrification rate,electricity demand and load characteristics,providing a basis and reference for the direction of urban energy low-carbon transformation.关键词
终端电气化/电气化率/能源电力消费/演化路径/负荷特性Key words
end-use electrification/electrification rate/energy-electricity consumption/evolutionary path/load char-acteristic分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
梁歆怡,尤作为,林凌雪..终端电气化驱动的城市电力消费演化路径研究[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2025,37(10):1-12,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金企业创新发展联合基金集成项目资助(U22B6007). （U22B6007）
