首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|The evolving distribution of humidity conditional on temperature and implications for compound heat extremes across China in a warming world
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(6)：9-14,6.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100596
The evolving distribution of humidity conditional on temperature and implications for compound heat extremes across China in a warming world
The evolving distribution of humidity conditional on temperature and implications for compound heat extremes across China in a warming world
摘要
Abstract
本研究利用非交叉分位数平滑样条,对中国七个气候分区的297个气象站分别建立了分位数回归模型,模拟露点温度基于局地温度的条件概率密度分布对全球变暖的响应,并预测了这些分布分别在2.0℃和4.5℃温升情景下的变化.结果表明,(1)这些分布对全球变暖的响应存在较大的区域异质性:东北地区,西北地区与沿海地区大多数站点呈现出极端湿热事件增加的趋势;而中国中部地区的多个站点呈现出极端干热事件增加的趋势.(2)这些趋势预计在2.0℃和4.5℃的温升情景下将进一步加剧.关键词
全球变暖/湿度随温度的条件概率密度分布/非交叉分位数平滑样条模型/温湿复合极端事件Key words
Global warming/Conditional distribution of dew point on temperature/Non-crossing quantile smoothing spline model/Compound heat extremes引用本文复制引用
Caixia Liang,Jiacan Yuan..The evolving distribution of humidity conditional on temperature and implications for compound heat extremes across China in a warming world[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2025,18(6):9-14,6.基金项目
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China[grant number 42175066]and the Shanghai Inter-national Science and Technology Partnership Project[grant number 21230780200]. （）
