首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|Principal modes of summer NDVI in eastern Siberia and its climate prediction schemes
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(6)：29-36,8.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100611
Principal modes of summer NDVI in eastern Siberia and its climate prediction schemes
Principal modes of summer NDVI in eastern Siberia and its climate prediction schemes
摘要
Abstract
本文基于1982-2021年的归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据集,利用年际增量法和经验正交函数方法提取了夏季东西伯利亚地区NDVI的年际变化主模态.NDVI年际增量(NDVI_DY)的前3个主模态(EOF1-3)分别呈全区一致,东西偶极子和南北偶极子变化特征.进一步分析影响其主模态变化的影响因子显示,前期2-3月热带印度洋海温和4月西西伯利亚土壤湿度是全区一致模态的关键影响因子,东西偶极子模态受前期4月西北太平洋海温和5月西西伯利亚土壤湿度的调控,前期5月北大西洋海温和前一年10月喀拉海海冰与南北偶极子模态相联.本文利用上述前期关键影响因子,基于多元线性回归分析和年际增量方法建立了夏季东西伯利亚地区NDVI_DY主模态的预测模型.其中,观测的EOF1-3对应的时间序列与各模态交叉检验结果的时间相关系数分别为0.62,0.46和0.37,均超过了95％的置信水平.此外,利用预测的各模态对应时间序列和观测的主模态,本文进一步建立了夏季东西伯利亚地区NDVI的场重建预测模型.2019-2021年夏季东西伯利亚地区独立后报的NDVI距平的空间分布也与观测一致.关键词
夏季NDVI/东西伯利亚地区/海温/海冰/土壤湿度/年际增量方法/气候预测Key words
Summer NDVI/Eastern Siberia/Sea surface temperature/Sea ice/Soil moisture/Year-to-year increment method/Climate prediction引用本文复制引用
Yuqing Tian,Ke Fan,Hongqing Yang,Zhiqing Xu..Principal modes of summer NDVI in eastern Siberia and its climate prediction schemes[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2025,18(6):29-36,8.基金项目
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Develop-ment Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800],the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42230603],the In-novation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001],and the Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guang-dong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]. （Zhuhai）
