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Interannual variability of short rains in Tanzania and the influences from ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole

Issa Rwambo Yi Fan Peilong Yu Changyu Chu Matthews Nyasulu Philemon King'uza

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(6)：43-48,6.

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(6)：43-48,6.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100614

Interannual variability of short rains in Tanzania and the influences from ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole

Issa Rwambo ¹Yi Fan ²Peilong Yu ³Changyu Chu ²Matthews Nyasulu ⁴Philemon King'uza¹

作者信息

1. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China||Tanzania Meteorological Authority,Dar es Salaam,Tanzania
2. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
3. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China||College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha,China||Key Laboratory of High Impact Weather(special),China Meteorological Administration,Changsha,China
4. School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
折叠

摘要

Abstract

坦桑尼亚降水模态呈现双峰型,其显著特征为两个不同的雨季:长雨季(3月至5月)和短雨季(10月至12月(OND)).短雨季降水强度通常较弱,但对当地农业仍具有重要影响.基于站点观测和再分析数据,本文研究了 1993-2022年坦桑尼亚OND降水的年际变化特征,并探讨了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和印度洋偶极子(IOD)的可能影响及其机制.研究发现,坦桑尼亚OND降水在1997,2006,2011和2019年偏多(1993,1998,2005和2016年偏少).降水偏多(偏少)年与气候态之间的差值场合成分析表明,异常低层辐合(辐散)和上升(下沉)运动是降水偏多(偏少)的关键环流特征.进一步分析发现,ENSO和IOD是调控坦桑尼亚OND降水年际变化的主要海洋系统.厄尔尼诺事件和正位相IOD会引发印度洋低层东风异常并削弱其上空Walker环流,从而导致坦桑尼亚水汽通量在低层辐合,上升运动异常和降水增多.相反,拉尼娜事件和负位相IOD会引起相反的环流异常,导致该地区降水减少.通过偏相关分析和广义平衡反馈方法,本文量化了ENSO和IOD对环流的独立贡献.结果表明,虽然IOD和ENSO均会影响Walker环流,但IOD的作用强于ENSO.这些发现为理解坦桑尼亚降水异常的海洋驱动因子及其机理路径提供了重要科学依据.

关键词

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动/印度洋偶极子/坦桑尼亚/降水/广义平衡反馈分析

Key words

ENSO/Indian ocean dipole/Tanzania/Precipitation/Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment

引用本文复制引用

Issa Rwambo,Yi Fan,Peilong Yu,Changyu Chu,Matthews Nyasulu,Philemon King'uza..Interannual variability of short rains in Tanzania and the influences from ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2025,18(6):43-48,6.

基金项目

This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42105030 and 42105066]and the Ministry of Commerce,People's Republic of China. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

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