Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential:Role of key meteorological variablesOA
Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential:Role of key meteorological variables
可再生能源,特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要,但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力(PVpot).本研究分析了历史(1985-2014年)和未来(2015-2100年)气候对PVpot的影响,量化了辐射,温度和风速的贡献.从历史上看,全球PVpot增加了0.42 ‰,其中中国东部(+7.1 ‰)和南欧(+3.5 ‰)的增长显著.到本世纪末,在SSP1-2.6下,辐射引起的PVpot增加(+1.27 ‰)抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失(-0.54 ‰),从而PVpot增加(+0.74 ‰).在SSP2-4.5下,温度引起的PVpot下降(-1.50 ‰)导致最终PVpot减少(-1.15 ‰).在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5中,辐射引起的(-1.94 ‰和-1.99 ‰)和温度引起的PVpot变化(-2.67 ‰和-3.41 ‰)共同导致PVpot显著下降(-4.57 ‰和-5.31 ‰).区域分析表明,中国东部(+0.7 ‰～+8.6 ‰),南欧(+0.3 ‰～+2.5 ‰)和南美洲西北部(+0.6 ‰～+2.1 ‰)在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化,这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少,这表明尽管未来气候变化,这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备.相比之下,在高排放情景下,青藏高原(-9.1 ‰～-4.3 ‰)和北非(-9.3‰～-4.9 ‰)的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降,这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能.本研究结果强调,可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量,从而更好地减缓全球变暖.
Chang Liu;Lei Chen;Ke Li;Xipeng Jin;Xi Chen;Wenhao Qiao;Hong Liao
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaJiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
太阳能光伏发电潜力气候变化气象影响历史和未来变化
Solar photovoltaic power potentialClimate changeMeteorological impactHistorical and future change
《大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）》 2025 (6)
58-64,7
This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[grant number BK20220031]and the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42007195].
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