农业研究与应用2025，Vol.38Issue(5)：466-474,9.DOI:10.20191/j.cnki.2095-0764.2025.05.006
广西百色市芒果产量与气象因子的逐步回归分析
Stepwise Regression Analysis on Meteorologi-cal Factors and Mango Yield in Baise,Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Baise City,Guangxi,stands as the largest prefecture-level mango culti-vation base in China,and the mango industry serves as a pillar industry for the implementation of rural revitalization in this city.Mango yield is closely linked to climate conditions.This study aimed to explore the correlation between mango yield in Baise and meteorological factors such as tempera-ture,humidity,and precipitation,identify the key meteorological factors influencing mango yield in Baise,and provide a reference for responding to climate change in mango production.[Method]Annual mango yield data and relevant meteorological data including annual and monthly average temperature,average maximum(minimum)temperature,active accumulated temperature,relative humidity,and precipitation in Baise from 2016 to 2024 were collected.Mathematical statistical anal-ysis methods were employed to conduct a correlation analysis between mango yield and meteorologi-cal factors.Meteorological factors that exhibited a close correlation with mango yield were screened by stepwise regression analysis,and finally a multiple regression equation describing the relation-ship between meteorological factors and mango yield was constructed.[Result]The data analysis results indicated that the average mango yield in Baise from 2016 to 2024 exhibited a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.During the study period,the annual average temperature,average maximum(minimum)temperature,and active accumulated temperature≥10℃in Baise generally presented an upward trend,while the annual relative humidity and precipitation showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.Stepwise regression analysis results showed that mango yield in Baise was primarily affected by precipitation from January to May during the flowering and fruiting stage and relative humidity in March during the full-bloom stage,while the average temperature,average maximum(minimum)temperature,and active accumulated temperature≥10℃had no significant effect.The precipitation from January to May(X1)had a significant positive impact while the relative humidity in March(X2)had a significant negative impact on the mango yield.Fi-nally,the multiple regression equation for the mango yield(Y)was obtained:Y=35.483+0.003X1-0.294X2,R2=0.954,P=0.000<0.01.[Conclusion]Optimal moisture conditions during flowering and fruiting stage facilitate mango flower anthesis and fruit expansion.Conversely,excessive hu-midity during the full-bloom stage impairs the normal pollination and fertilization of mango flowers,which in turn adversely affects yield.Hence,in mango cultivation,the implementation of targeted management practices to avoid mango flowering during rainy and high-humidity periods,while maintaining adequate moisture throughout the flowering and fruiting stage,is beneficial for en-hancing both mango yield and fruit quality.关键词
芒果/芒果产量/气象因子/逐步回归分析/百色市Key words
Mango/mango yield/meteorological factors/stepwise regression analysis/Baise City分类
园艺学与植物营养学引用本文复制引用
杨振荣,陆英,王皆胜,汪志涛,陆惠琼,黄得志,黄琦..广西百色市芒果产量与气象因子的逐步回归分析[J].农业研究与应用,2025,38(5):466-474,9.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系广西创新团队(nycytxgxcxtd-2021-06-05). （nycytxgxcxtd-2021-06-05）
