湖北农业科学2025，Vol.64Issue(9)：51-55,5.DOI:10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.09.009
气候变化对长江中下游地区水稻产量的影响及情景模拟
Effects of climate change on rice yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and scenario simulation
摘要
Abstract
Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as the research object,the data of climate change and rice yield from 1983 to 2023 were collected.By constructing the analysis model and using the econometric method,the key influencing factors of rice yield in this area were analyzed.The results showed that temperature and precipitation were the key factors affecting the yield and planting area of rice,and they were negatively correlated with rice yield.During the growth period of rice,for every 10 mm increase in precipitation,rice yield decreased by 0.450%.For every 1℃increase in temperature,rice yield decreased by 2.450%.From the per-spective of future development trend,rice yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River might face a significant down-ward trend,and the decline would continue to increase.The impact of climate change on rice yield in the middle reaches of the Yang-tze River was greater than that on rice yield in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.关键词
气候变化/水稻产量/情景模拟/C-D-C模型/长江中下游地区Key words
climate change/rice yield/scenario simulation/C-D-C model/the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
曾志勇..气候变化对长江中下游地区水稻产量的影响及情景模拟[J].湖北农业科学,2025,64(9):51-55,5.基金项目
湖北省教育厅科学研究计划项目(B2021360) （B2021360）
湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队计划项目(T2024046) （T2024046）
武汉学院校级科学研究重点项目(KYZ202305) （KYZ202305）
湖北一丹大学教育发展基金会A类科研基金项目(JJA202405) （JJA202405）
