湖泊科学2025，Vol.37Issue(6)：2212-2223,12.DOI:10.18307/2025.0641
城镇化背景下太湖平原地区水文极端事件的联合频率变化特征
Variation characteristics of joint frequency for compound extreme hydrological events un-der the background of urbanization in the Taihu Basin
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change and urbanization,the increasing frequency of extreme compound hydrological events has disrupted urban activities and daily life,posing threats to public safety and property.Understanding the joint frequency characteristics and mechanisms of these extreme events is critical forenhancing water security.This study employs copula-based joint distribution theory to analyze the joint frequency characteristics of extreme rainfall-flood,flood-tide,and rainfall-tide compound events in the Taihu Basin,revealing the changing patterns of their co-occurrence probabilities across different urban-ization stages.Compared to the early period of urbanization,extreme water levels,tidal levels,and rainfall during the rapid urban-ization phase have shown a significant increase,with the annual maximum 1-day rainfall rising by more than 15％and the annual maximum 1-day water level increasing by over 6％.Moreover,the mean values of hydrological elements in the Wuchengxiyu region are consistently higher than those in the Yangchengdianmao region.The Wuchengxiyu region faces a higher risk of extreme rainfall-flood compound events,while the Yangchengdianmao region is more prone to extreme rainfall-tide and flood-tide compound events.The study highlights that extreme compound hydrological events in the Taihu Basin are significantly influenced by urbanization in-tensity,with the probability of encountering such events during the rapid urbanization period approximately doubling.Notably,the rate of change in return periods is greater in the Wuchengxiyu region than in the Yangchengdianmao region.These findings provide valuable scientific insights for hydrological engineering design and flood risk mitigation in the Taihu Basin or other rapidly urbani-zing regions with similar backgrounds.关键词
太湖流域/极端水文复合事件/频率变化/联合分布函数/城镇化影响Key words
Taihu Basin/compound extreme hydrological events/frequency change/joint distribution function/urbanization im-pacts引用本文复制引用
宋琛,王强,许有鹏,何玉秀,林芷欣..城镇化背景下太湖平原地区水文极端事件的联合频率变化特征[J].湖泊科学,2025,37(6):2212-2223,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42471035,U2240203)资助. （42471035,U2240203）
