海洋预报2025，Vol.42Issue(5)：63-72,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2025.05.007
渤海一次海上强风过程的成因及预报服务难点分析
Analysis of the causes and forecasting service difficulties of a severe thunderstorm gale event in the Bohai Sea
摘要
Abstract
Using observational data from automatic weather stations,the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data,radar composite reflectivity mosaic data,and the China Meteorological Administration Regional High-Resolution Mesoscale Model(CMA-MESO)forecasting products,the causes of a severe thunderstorm gale event over the Bohai Sea during 13-14 June,2024 are analyzed,and the difficulties in forecasting service are discussed.The results show that an upper troposphere cold vortex at 500 hPa originated near Lake Baikal began to develop and slowly moved eastward 2 to 3 days before this event,entered the northeastern China on 13 June.The cold air at the cold vortex rear moved southward along with a lower troposphere shear system with warm and humid conditions,a mesoscale convection system was triggered in the afternoon of 13 June,moved to the Bohai Sea at 19 to 20 BJT resulting in a local maximum wind force of 10～12 levels.At Huanghua Port Bonded Logistics Zone(B2776),the wind convergence in the lower troposphere supported a strong upward motion,and the unstable upper cold‒lower warm stratification was conducive to triggering the release of unstable energy,which in turn stimulated the development of the squall line and thunderstorm winds.The vertical temperature gradient decided the relative large K-index of this event,which had a good correspondence with the evolution of humidity in the lower troposphere at 700 hPa.The conducive thermal and dynamic conditions serve as the foundation of this thunderstorm.Despite some limitations existing in the extreme wind peak value forecasts,the CMA-MESO provided an early forecast of the strong wind event over the Bohai Sea 2 to 3 days in advance,which is useful for port meteorological services.关键词
渤海/大气环流/数值预报/港口气象服务Key words
Bohai Sea/atmospheric circulation/numerical prediction/port meteorological service分类
海洋学引用本文复制引用
节江涛,窦慧敏,王佳希,孙思远..渤海一次海上强风过程的成因及预报服务难点分析[J].海洋预报,2025,42(5):63-72,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004102) （2022YFC3004102）
沧州专业气象融合服务创新团队专项 （）
中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心台风及海洋环境数值预报技术创新团队专项. （）
