家畜生态学报2025，Vol.46Issue(10)：99-107,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1182.2025.10.015
膳食结构视角下畜牧业碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究
Research on Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Animal Husbandry under the Perspective of Dietary Structure——Take Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the statistical data from 2003 to 2022,this paper takes Shandong Province as the research object to calculate the carbon emissions of beef,mutton,pork and poultry meat.It uses the ker-nel density curve and other methods to analyze their spatio-temporal characteristics and employs the LMDI model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions.The aim is to identify the key factors affecting the carbon emissions of the livestock industry and accordingly put forward practical policy suggestions to promote the low-carbon and sustainable development of the livestock industry in Shandong Province.The research results show that:for the temporal characteristics,the total carbon emissions of the livestock in-dustry in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2022 have shown a fluctuating upward trend.Among them,the total carbon emissions of beef have shown a fluctuating downward trend,those of pork have fluctuated up-ward,those of mutton have shown a fluctuating decrease but with a relatively small overall change,and those of poultry meat have shown a fluctuating growth trend.In terms of spatial distribution,compared with 2003,the carbon emissions of the livestock industry in Liaocheng City,Jining City,Tai'an City,Ji-nan City and Qingdao City have decreased in range in 2022,while those in Heze City,Dezhou City,Binzhou City,Dongying City,Linyi City and Yantai City have increased in range.The carbon emissions of the livestock industry in Zaozhuang City,Zibo City,Weifang City,Rizhao City and Weihai City have re-mained unchanged in range.The carbon emissions of beef,pork,mutton and poultry meat show different spatial distribution characteristics.From the decomposition results of the influencing factors,the produc-tion efficiency of the livestock industry and the proportion of the value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery have obvious inhibitory effects on the carbon emissions of the livestock industry;the impact of the proportion of the value of the livestock industry has changed from positive to negative;the per capita GDP and population size have significantly promoted the carbon emissions of the livestock in-dustry.Based on this,the following policy suggestions are put forward:optimize the feed structure and improve the feed utilization efficiency;promote the integration of planting and breeding and strengthen carbon emission reduction management;rationally adjust the meat consumption structure and advocate a scientific dietary structure.关键词
膳食结构/畜牧业碳排放/时空特征/核密度曲线/LMDI模型Key words
dietary structure/carbon emission from animal husbandry/spatial and temporal character-istics/kernel density curve/LMDI model分类
畜牧业引用本文复制引用
许少成,吴辰,杜相宇,张怡..膳食结构视角下畜牧业碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究[J].家畜生态学报,2025,46(10):99-107,9.基金项目
山东省家禽产业技术体系产业经济岗位(SDAIT-11-12) （SDAIT-11-12）
