林业科学研究2025，Vol.38Issue(5)：24-36,13.DOI:10.12403/j.1001-1498.20250015
基于全球潜在适生区的中国榄李濒危的探讨
Assessment of the Endangered Status of Lumnitzera racemosa Willd.In China Based on Global Habitat-based Analysis
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the global distribution pattern of Lumnitzera racemosa Willd.and its projected changes under different future climate scenarios,in order to provide a theoretical basis for its conservation and restoration in China.[Methods]Based on an optimized MaxEnt model,a total of 410 global occurrence records of L.racemosa and 10 environmental variables were used to simu-late the species'potential suitable habitats across six periods:the Last Interglacial(LIG,≈130 000-115 000 years BP),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM,≈ 27 000-19 000 years BP),the Mid-Holocene(MH,≈ 6,000 years BP),the present(1970-2000),and future scenarios of the 2050s(2041-2 060)and 2070s(2 06 1-2 080)under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.[Results]The optimal MaxEnt model configuration used a regularization multiplier(RM)of 1.0 and a feature combination of linear+product(L+P),which produced a low omission rate and a concise model structure.The model's predictive performance was ro-bust,with AUC values ranging from 0.977 to 0.982 across different periods.The key environmental factors influencing the distribution of L.racemosa were the min temperature of the coldest month,elevation,mean diurnal range,precipitation in the warmest quarter,and the average temperature of the wettest quarter.The favorable thresholds for these variables were:minimum temperature of the coldest month(bio6)>16.37 ℃,elevation(bio31)>1.51 m,mean diurnal range(bio2)<9.14 ℃,precipitation in the warmest quarter(bio18)>427.44 mm,and mean temperature of the wettest quarter(bio8)>26.07 ℃.Globally,the potential distribution of L.racemosa is concentrated in coastal areas and has gradually expanding from past to the present,with increasing habitat suitability.Compared with ancient climates,the total potential suitable area in thepresent day has increased by 73.07％.Under future climate scenarios,the area classi-fied as highly suitable is projected to increase by 39.41％and 38.31％in the 2050s and 2070s,respect-ively.In China,extensive high-suitability zones are found in coastal regions,including Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan,Fujian,and the western side of Taiwan,and the habitat suitability will further increase in the future.The current centroid of L.racemosa is located at(104.11°E,2.05°N).Under the high-emission scenario(SSP585)for the 2070s,it shifts to(100.89°E,7.62°N).The average distribution center(centroid)of L.racemosa is in Southeast Asia,showing a trend of shifting towards higher latitudes from the ancient climate.[Conclusion]In China,L.racemosa is classified as endangered due to multiple threats,including population decline from land reclamation,habitat loss,abnormal seed germination,and difficulty in seed-ling survival.Additionally,the loss of genetic diversity in its population is a significant factor contributing to its endangered status in China,despite being classified as of"Least Concern"globally.The proposed con-servation and restoration strategies include:strengthening legislative protection and enforcement in its native distribution areas,promoting"+L.racemosa"combination planting in high-suitability zones,exploring measures to enhance seed germination rates,systematically collecting wild L.racemosa germplasm re-sources in China,introducing homogenous planting resources from abroad,and conducting cold-tolerance breeding.关键词
榄李/最大熵模型/气候变化/潜在适生区Key words
Lumnitzera racemosa/MaxEnt model/climate change/potential suitable habitat分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李泽瑞,孙琳,陈玉军,李玫,黄烈健..基于全球潜在适生区的中国榄李濒危的探讨[J].林业科学研究,2025,38(5):24-36,13.基金项目
广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B020214001)省市级 （2020B020214001）
