中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(11)：27-41,15.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20250049
不同高度X波段雷达径向风同化对台风预报影响
The Impact of Assimilating High and Low-Level X-Band Phased Array Radar Data on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
This study conducts numerical experiments on tropical cyclone Saola(2023)using the Ty-phoon Rapid Refresh Analysis and Nowcasting System developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteoro-logical Sciences,assimilating radial wind velocity data from S-band Doppler Radar and X-band Phased Array Radar with the Ensemble Kalman Filter method.The assimilation effects on Saola's track and in-tensity are evaluated,with particular focus on the assimilation sensitivity of X-band Phased Array Radar data at different altitudes.Results indicate that compared with solely assimilating S-band Doppler Data assimilating X-band Phased-Array Radar data in addition to S-band Doppler Radar data further reduces track error and intensity error by 13.7％and 58.0％,respectively.X-band Phased Array Radar data above 4 km primarily influences the geopotential height,horizontal wind,and warm-core intensity above 600 hPa at the initial time though dynamic and thermodynamic processes,although this effect dimini-shes progressively during forecast integration.X-band phased array radar data below 4 km mainly affect geopotential height and horizontal wind below 700 hPa through dynamic processes,directly strengthe-ning the mid-to-lower-level pressure and wind fields.Moreover,after 3 hours of the deterministic fore-cast initiation,the entire wind and pressure fields are influenced.This study finds that assimilating X-band Phased Array Radar data below 4 km provides equivalent forecast skill of tropical cyclone's track,intensity,and structure compared to assimilating X-band Phased Array Radar data at all alti-tudes.Furthermore,it verifies the effectiveness of X-band Phased-Array Radar in complementing the low-level coverage of S-band Doppler Radar in tropical cyclone data assimilation and forecasting,offering actionable insights for refining operational tropical cyclone forecasting.关键词
台风/资料同化/X波段相控阵雷达/敏感性试验/集合卡尔曼滤波Key words
tropical cyclone/data assimilation/X-band phased array radar/sensitivity experiments/Ensemble Kalman filter分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
石哲璇,冯佳宁,吴翀,王超,王慧,刘涛,端义宏..不同高度X波段雷达径向风同化对台风预报影响[J].中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(11):27-41,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42192554,61827901,42175016):中国气象局上海台风研究所项目(TFJJ202210):灾害天气科学与技术全国重点实验室自主研究课题项目(2025QZA02):中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金项目(2025KJ017):中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(2023Z020)资助Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42192554,61827901,42175016) （42192554,61827901,42175016）
the Research Fund of Shanghai Typhoon In-stitution(TFJJ202210) （TFJJ202210）
the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological of Scinence and Tehnology(2025QZA02) （2025QZA02）
the Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS(2025KJ017):the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2023Z020) （2025KJ017）
