气象2025，Vol.51Issue(10)：1157-1170,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.063002
多源高频次探测资料在北京强对流个例临近预报中的应用
Application of Multi-Source High-Frequency Detection Data to the Nowcasting of Local Severe Convection in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
This paper comprehensively uses multi-source high-frequency detection data to analyze the for-mation causes and development of a localized severe convective event that occurred in Beijing on 27 August 2020,and the applicability of the observation data in nowcasting and warning of such severe convection.Utilizing the data from various high-frequency detection instruments including microwave radiometers,wind profile radars,S-band Doppler radars,X-band dual-polarization radars,and a three-dimensional light-ning positioning system,we investigate the evolutionary characteristics and warning indicators during thunderstorm initiation,development and dissipation stages.The results demonstrate that the microwave radiometer-retrieved temperature,humidity and stability parameters(K-index,SI-index)show significant variations 30-120 min prior to the outbreak of severe convection,effectively indicating the energy accumulation.The enhanced vertical wind shear and low-level warm advection detected by wind profile radars can reflect dynamic lifting condition 55-120 min in advance.S/X-band radar observations of echo overhanging struc-tures,centroid height variations,and dual-polarization parameters(ZDR,KDP)enable the identification of hail growth zones,achieving 12-37 min lead time for hail and thunderstorm gale warnings.Lightning jump signals(2σ algorithm)exhibit strong correlation with severe weather(hail and winds),with the first jump providing 52 min lead time for hail warning.Validation of other four severe convective cases in 2020 shows that synergistic application of multi-source observations can overcome the limitation of single-instrument detection,enabling dynamic tracking of environmental energy,storm structure and lightning activities,thereby providing valuable references for short-time forecasting and nowcasting.关键词
强对流/多源高频次探测资料/雷达/微波辐射计/闪电定位系统/临近预报Key words
severe convection/multi-source high-frequency detection data/radar/microwave radiometer/lightning position system/nowcasting分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
何娜,田野,陈明轩,李林,杨艺亚,韩微..多源高频次探测资料在北京强对流个例临近预报中的应用[J].气象,2025,51(10):1157-1170,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42275012、42205091)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J018)、中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2023QN10)、北京市科技计划课题(Z221100005222012)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z034)、北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ202001006)和北京市自然科学基金项目(8244063)共同资助 （42275012、42205091）
