气象2025，Vol.51Issue(10)：1182-1192,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.041601
厄尔尼诺开始早晚对中国夏季降水的影响
Impact of Early and Late Onset of El Niño on Summer Precipitation in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly precipitation of 643 stations in China,NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and NOAA ERSST sea surface temperature(SST)data from 1961 to 2023,the impacts of early and late onset of El Niño on summer precipitation in China are analyzed.The results are as follows.Westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial West-Central Pacific are more pronounced in June-August of years with early El Niño onset than in years with late El Niño onset,resulting in a more obvious warming of SST in the equatorial East-Central Pacific in earlier onset years,and the SST in this period continues to rise.How-ever,the positive anomaly of SST in the equatorial East-Central Pacific in the later onset years of El Niño is not obvious and changes slowly.There are obvious differences in summer precipitation in central and eastern China between the El Niño earlier and the El Niño later onset years,especially in July and August.In the El Niño earlier onset years,the Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone(WNPAC)generally ap-pears around August,the summer precipitation in central and eastern China is distributed in the"-+-"pattern from south to north,with more precipitation than normal in Jianghuai Region,and less precipita-tion than normal in other areas.In June,the West Pacific has an abnormal cyclone and the precipitation in most of China's central and eastern parts is less than normal.In July,the abnormal cyclone in the West Pacific retreats southward significantly,the precipitation in most parts of the Jiangnan,Northwest and North China continues to be less than normal.And the abnormal anticyclone to the east of Japan signifi-cantly extends westward and develops southward,which makes the southeast coastal areas of China turn to be dominated by abnormal southerly winds,leading to excessive precipitation along the southern China coast and in Jianghuai Basin.In August,the cyclone in the Northwest Pacific turns into an anomalous anti-cyclone and WNPAC begins to appear,so the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang-tze River and most parts of its south is more than normal,while the precipitation in most parts of northern China is less than normal.In the later onset years of El Niño,WNPAC usually appears in October or later,and the West Pacific has an abnormal cyclone from June to August.The summer precipitation in the central and eastern regions of China is distributed in the"+-+"pattern from south to north,and the precipitation anomaly persistence characteristics of each month are obvious.关键词
厄尔尼诺/夏季降水/西北太平洋异常反气旋(WNPAC)Key words
El Niño/summer precipitation/Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone(WNPAC)分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
罗连升,汪栩加,程智,刘俊杰,徐敏..厄尔尼诺开始早晚对中国夏季降水的影响[J].气象,2025,51(10):1182-1192,11.基金项目
安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金项目(2208085UQ10)、国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007700)、中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-058)、安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085MD102)和安徽省气象局创新发展专项(YJG202301)共同资助 （2208085UQ10）
