气象2025，Vol.51Issue(10)：1237-1248,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.062601
基于动态近似垂直变率的ECMWF模式2 m气温订正方法研究
Study on ECMWF 2 m Temperature Bias Correction Based on Dynamically Approximated Vertical Change Rate
摘要
Abstract
Taking into account the relationships between model temperature forecasts,model topography,observed temperatures and actual topography,this paper designs a dynamically approximated vertical rate correction method for the 2 m temperature that evolves over space and time.A correction test is conducted for Chongqing in 2023.The evaluation results of ECMWF model forecasts show that the spatial distribu-tion of forecast skill for maximum and minimum 2 m temperatures is similar,but forecast skill for maxi-mum temperature is significantly weaker than for minimum temperature,and deteriorates with increasing forecast lead time.A close correlation is found between model topographic elevation bias and temperature forecast bias.Areas with smaller elevation bias tend to exhibit better forecast skill,and vice versa.Com-parative research reveals that the correction scheme based on dynamically approximated vertical rate signifi-cantly outperforms the scheme based on the constant vertical rate.Both schemes can improve the ECMWF model temperature forecasts,with better correction performance for maximum temperatures than for mini-mum temperatures.Compared to the raw model forecasts,the corrected results based on dynamically ap-proximated vertical rate have increased the 10 d average forecast accuracy of maximum and minimum tem-peratures by 12.71％and 8.30％,respectively,and reduced the mean absolute error by 0.68℃ and 0.30℃,respectively.The monthly average forecast accuracy of the maximum temperature for 24 h fore-cast lead time has increased by 20.34％and the minimum temperature has increased by 14.44％.Overall,the corrected temperature forecasts are more stable.The correction scheme based on dynamically approxi-mated vertical rate can effectively reduce the temperature forecast bias.The greater the model topographic elevation bias,the smaller the amplitude of weather process fluctuation,and the more obvious the correc-tion performance.关键词
最高气温/最低气温/模式地形高度偏差/动态近似垂直变率/预报准确率/预报订正Key words
maximum temperature/minimum temperature/model topographic elevation bias/dynamically approximated vertical rate/forecast accuracy/forecast correction分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
吴胜刚,赵声蓉,王玉,张焱..基于动态近似垂直变率的ECMWF模式2 m气温订正方法研究[J].气象,2025,51(10):1237-1248,12.基金项目
中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN04)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J001)、重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202302)和重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0057)共同资助 （CMA2024QN04）
