气象学报2025，Vol.83Issue(5)：1202-1216,15.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2025.20240136
穿过江苏热带气旋活动及潜在破坏力的时空分布特征
Spatiotemporal distributions of tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu province and their destructive potential
摘要
Abstract
In this study,67 Tropical Cyclones(TCs)crossing Jiangsu province are identified from a total of 2440 western North Pacific TCs during the 73 a period of 1949-2021 using the best-track data archived at the China Meteorological Administration's Shanghai Typhoon Institute(CMA-STI).Temporal and spatial characteristics of activities and potential destructiveness associated with TCs crossing Jiangsu province are investigated.Results show that TCs crossing Jiangsu province,which mainly generated in July and August over a broader region,account for 2.7%and 10.2%of TCs over the western North Pacific and those making landfall in China,respectively.TCs crossing Jiangsu province made landfall in China mainly in June—November,with the highest landfalling frequency and widest landfalling distribution in August.The landfalling routes of TCs crossing Jiangsu are categorized into 14 types(T1—T14),of which the route T4 for TCs that made landfall first in Taiwan,China and then in Fujian accounts for the highest proportion.The TC tracks crossing Jiangsu are classified into four types.The moving directions in Jiangsu and overall track morphologies of TCs corresponding to these four types are closely related to the westward extension and northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high.TCs entered and left mainly from the southeast and east coast of Jiangsu respectively during July—September.The entering locations of TCs crossing Jiangsu shift northward from June to August and retreat southward in September—October,while leaving locations shift westward and then retreat eastward,due to seasonal adjustments of large-scale systems,such as the western Pacific subtropical high and monsoon circulation.The track density of TCs in Jiangsu generally decreases from southeast to northwest,with most of the TCs moving northward or northeastward.Spatial distributions of track density and average velocity vectors of TCs crossing Jiangsu are characterized by significant monthly variations.There is a significant increase in potential destructiveness of TCs in Jiangsu(JS-PDI)during the period of 1949-2021,corresponding to increases in their landfall intensity and average intensity in Jiangsu.The JS-PDI in August is considerably higher than in other months.In agreement with the distribution of average TC intensity in Jiangsu,larger JS-PDI values are mainly distributed in the coastal region and Southeast of Jiangsu,and the locations of maximum JS-PDI agree well with the TC track density.关键词
热带气旋(TC)活动/热带气旋(TC)路径/江苏省/潜在破坏力Key words
Tropical cyclone activities/Tropical cyclone tacks/Jiangsu province/Potential destructiveness分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
张雪蓉,廖一帆,濮梅娟,陈联寿,李英..穿过江苏热带气旋活动及潜在破坏力的时空分布特征[J].气象学报,2025,83(5):1202-1216,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41805036)、江苏省气象学会青年科研基金项目(KQ201908)、广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(2023KY1135). （41805036）
