气象学报2025，Vol.83Issue(5)：1241-1257,17.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2025.20240168
超强台风"利奇马"(1909)近海路径预报误差的关键影响机制
Key mechanisms influencing forecast errors of the inshore track of super typhoon Lekima(1909)
摘要
Abstract
Significant progress has been made in numerical forecasting of typhoon tracks and intensity,yet meeting the needs of operational forecasting remains challenging.Based on the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,eight sets of combination experiments are conducted with different model initial conditions,initialization times,and microphysical parameterization schemes.The results indicate that the model initial condition exhibits the highest sensitivity in forecasting the track of typhoon Lekima(1909).Representative experiments are selected based on track errors,and sensitivity experiments are conducted to further explore the mechanisms responsible for significant differences in typhoon track forecasts arising from different model initial conditions.The results indicate that accurate forecasting of the strength and extent of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)plays a crucial role in determining the quality of typhoon track predictions.An overestimation of the WPSH in the initial field leads to a subsequent overestimation of WPSH,which blocks the typhoon that moves westward and northward along the WPSH and its moving speed is slowed.This results in significant errors in the typhoon track forecasting.Additionally,forecast errors of the typhoon inner core structure at different stages are related to the predicted typhoon track.Vertical wind shear in the large-scale circulation field may be a significant factor contributing to this error.Moreover,an overestimation of the WPSH extent and intensity leads to a deeper asymmetric distribution of horizontal wind speed near the typhoon,which contributes to the occurrence and development of deep convection.This is an important reason for the slower moving speed of the typhoon.关键词
西太平洋副热带高压/引导气流/台风路径/风垂直切变/台风"利奇马"Key words
Western Pacific subtropical high/Steering flow/Typhoon track/Vertical wind shear/Typhoon Lekima分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
张彤彤,李涵,郝冰洁,童劲,朱磊,葛旭阳,马旭林..超强台风"利奇马"(1909)近海路径预报误差的关键影响机制[J].气象学报,2025,83(5):1241-1257,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2242213)、国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000902). （U2242213）
