人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(10)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.10.001
1980-2021年广州市降水量年内分配不均匀性及变化规律
Uneven Distribution and Variation Patterns of Annual Precipitation in Guangzhou from 1980 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
In the context of frequent extreme precipitation events and significant changes in precipitation's spatial and temporal patterns due to global climate change,it is crucial to explore the impact of uneven precipitation on regional water and drought disaster prevention,as well as water resource management.This study focuses on Guangzhou,utilizing daily data from 19 precipitation stations in the city from 1980 to 2021,along with Lorenz curves.The Gini coefficient is employed to quantitatively describe the uneven distribution of precipitation within the year,while the Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to examine the spatiotemporal changes in annual precipitation and the uneven distribution of precipitation within the year in Guangzhou.The results are as follows.① From 1980 to 2021,the average annual precipitation in Guangzhou was 1 778 mm,with the highest recorded in 1983(2 453 mm)and the lowest in 1991(1 058 mm).Annual precipitation shows an increasing trend.The precipitation during the flood season was 1 430.5 mm,with the highest in 2019(1 949.3 mm)and the lowest in 1991(826.6 mm).Precipitation during the flood season shows a stronger increasing trend compared to annual precipitation.② The spatial distribution of annual precipitation is higher in the northeast of Zengcheng District and Conghua District,and lower in the south of Nansha District and Panyu District.89.5%of the sites show an increasing trend.The spatial distribution of precipitation during the flood season largely mirrors that of annual precipitation,with only the precipitation at Paitan and Shaxi stations showing a decreasing trend during the flood season.③ The annual average Gini coefficient of precipitation in Guangzhou is 0.833 6,with a maximum value of 0.868(2003)and a minimum value of 0.804 4(2016).There are 22 years with a Gini coefficient greater than the multi-year average,accounting for approximately 52%of the total years.The Gini coefficient in Guangzhou shows a spatial distribution pattern that increases gradually from north to south.The southern regions are significantly affected by typhoons and terrain,which is generally consistent with the spatial distribution of rainstorm intensity.(4)Guangzhou has a high Gini coefficient and a greater concentration of precipitation,influenced by both natural and human factors(urbanization).This study provides a scientific basis for regional flood control and water resource management,offering a deeper understanding of the changes in precipitation characteristics in Guangzhou.It also introduces certain innovations in research methods and data application.关键词
降水时空格局/基尼系数/降水年内分配/不均匀性/M-K趋势检验法Key words
spatiotemporal pattern of precipitation/Gini coefficient/annual distribution of precipitation/non-uniformity/M-K trend testing method分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
赵子惜..1980-2021年广州市降水量年内分配不均匀性及变化规律[J].人民珠江,2025,46(10):1-9,9.基金项目
水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金(WX20241100512) （WX20241100512）
