人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(10)：10-17,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.10.002
开都河近60余年径流变化规律多时间尺度分析
Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Runoff Variation of Kaidu River over Past 60 Years
摘要
Abstract
The pattern analysis of the long-sequence river runoff evolution holds crucial importance for the scientific planning and rational utilization of surface water resources.This study was grounded in runoff data from the Kaidu River over the past 60 years or above.By applying techniques such as simple linear regression,non-parametric testing,R/S analysis,and wavelet analysis,it delved into the runoff variation patterns across two time scales:the multi-year scale and the seasonal scale.The results reveal that the runoff demonstrates a pronounced upward trend at the multi-year scale,along with in spring,autumn,and winter seasons.Conversely,the increasing tendency of runoff in summer is relatively unremarkable.The computed values of the statistical test indices Z and β are consistent with the outcomes of the linear regression analysis.The mutation point of runoff at the multi-year scale is identified as 1996.At the seasonal scales of spring,summer,autumn,and winter,the inflection points for the transition between wet and dry periods of runoff are 1996,1996,1994,and 1994,respectively.At the multi-year scale,the Hurst index of runoff stands at 0.865.At the seasonal scales of spring,summer,autumn,and winter,the Hurst indices of runoff are 0.653,0.792,0.852,and 0.912,respectively,with all these values surpassing 0.5.It suggests that the runoff will persist in an upward trajectory in the future.At the multi-year scale,the runoff features change cycles of 14 years and 25 years.At the seasonal scale,the first-order principal cycle of runoff fluctuates in the range of 14～15 years.The research findings provide a technical reference for the scientific utilization of surface water resources and ecological conservation within the basin.关键词
径流/时间尺度/突变分析/小波分析/开都河Key words
runoff/time scale/mutation analysis/wavelet analysis/Kaidu River分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
魏光辉,张环,张蕾嫘,杨美娥..开都河近60余年径流变化规律多时间尺度分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(10):10-17,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(U2003204) （U2003204）
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206804) （2023YFC3206804）
水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022155) （SKS-2022155）
国家科技基础资源调查专项(2022xjkk0103) （2022xjkk0103）
