上海国土资源2025，Vol.46Issue(3)：35-42,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1329.2025.03.006
中国天然气储气库价值评价研究
A study on value assessment of natural gas storage facilities in China
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of the advancement of the"dual carbon"policy and the deepening of market-oriented reforms,the strategic value of natural gas storage facilities in China has become increasingly prominent.However,the current evaluation methods have significant shortcomings:traditional static models struggle to address the intensifying cyclical price fluctuations and the complex interplay between policy and market dynamics,failing to accurately reflect their dynamic value.To address this,this paper proposes an innovative method combining historical price differentials with reverse recursion.This method is based on natural gas spot price data from the Central China region for the period 2020-2025.It replaces forward price forecasts with the historical winter-summer price spread fluctuation ratio,reducing reliance on high-frequency transaction data.Additionally,it employs reverse recursive optimization for multi-stage injection and production decisions,incorporating parameter design for the weighted average cost of capital(WACC)and policy risk premium to balance current low-marketization conditions with future reform requirements.Empirical research on the Jianghan Salt Cavern Storage Facility validated the effectiveness of this method:the valuation result was 41.043 billion yuan,a 45.1%increase over the 28.294 billion yuan from the traditional net present value method,more fully reflecting its peak-shaving value during the winter peak load in Central China.The dynamic assessment framework constructed in this study,with its decision-making logic and parameter mechanisms,provides theoretical support for improving the natural gas price formation mechanism,promoting the commercial operation of gas storage facilities,and enhancing the scientific basis of investment decisions,thereby contributing to the establishment of a gas storage facility value evaluation system tailored to China's national conditions.关键词
地下储气库/天然气储气库/价值评估/价值评价模型Key words
underground gas storage/gas storage reservoir/value assessment/value evaluation model分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
梁玥,李采,何庆成,次惠岭,郭朝斌,尹振勇..中国天然气储气库价值评价研究[J].上海国土资源,2025,46(3):35-42,8.基金项目
自然资源部碳封存与地质储能工程技术创新中心科研计划项目 （）
