生态科学2025，Vol.44Issue(5)：208-218,11.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2025.05.020
城市土地利用演化下空间适宜性特征及多情景预测模拟研究
Research on spatial suitability characteristics and multi-scenario simulation under urban land use evolvement
摘要
Abstract
The expansion of urbanisation has exerted a significant impact on regional land use patterns and has triggered a series of ecological and environmental problems such as unstable urban land use structure and disorderly spatial layout.In order to build an ecological security pattern of new urbanisation,the land use data of Hohhot City for five periods from 1980 to 2020 is used to assess and analyze the evolution of urban spatial patterns and land use in the study area,and based on the GeoSOS-FLUS,analyzing the spatial distribution characteristics of land suitability,the spatial pattern of land use in Hohhot in 2030 under three development scenarios was predicted and simulated.The results show that:(1)The centre of gravity of construction land in Hohhot gradually migrates towards the centre of the city district,the standard deviation ellipse area decreases rapidly,and the urban spatial pattern shows the intensive distribution characteristics of gathering towards the centre of the city district.(2)Construction land is expanding to the periphery by encroaching on the surrounding cultivated land,grassland and unused land;on the contrary,the area of grassland continues to shrink and is mainly transformed into cultivated land,forest land and a small portion of construction land,while the area of water area as a whole does not fluctuate much,and,in addition,cultivated land,forest land and unused land are transformed into each other.(3)The distribution characteristics of the spatial suitability of each land-use type in the study area are basically in line with the actual situation of the spatial layout of the city and the laws of nature.The areas of highly suitable zones for forest land,watersheds and built-up land among the six land-use types are all larger than their respective current sizes,with the potential for further expansion.In addition,there is a risk of further outward expansion of unused land such as saline and desertified sandy land.(4)In the natural development scenario,land for construction expands outwards from its original base,and the area of forest land also increases slightly,but some of the cultivated land and grassland are converted into unused land.While the area of unutilised land continues to decrease under the economic growth scenario,it is mainly converted into built-up land,resulting in further growth in built-up land area.The increase in the area of built-up land under the ecological protection scenario is significantly lower,while the area of ecological land,such as woodland and grassland,all increases.关键词
城镇化/城市空间形态/土地利用/FLUS模型/适宜性/情景模拟Key words
urbanisation/urban spatial form/land use/GeoSOS-FLUS/suitability/scenario simulatio分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘宇,甄婷,牛天赐,杨丰玮,崔秀萍..城市土地利用演化下空间适宜性特征及多情景预测模拟研究[J].生态科学,2025,44(5):208-218,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(19XMZ102) （19XMZ102）
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2022MS07008) （2022MS07008）
内蒙古财经大学自治区"五大任务"研究专项(NCXWD2304) （NCXWD2304）
内蒙古财经大学科研创新项目(NCYX2023-002) （NCYX2023-002）
