生态科学2025，Vol.44Issue(5)：252-261,10.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2025.05.024
包头市生态系统服务价值评估与模拟
Evaluation and simulation of ecosystem services value in Baotou City
摘要
Abstract
Baotou City is located in the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China,and its land use changes significantly affect the ecosystem services value(ESV).Evaluating ESV can provide a basis for regional land management and ecological protection.Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020,the System Dynamics(SD)model was used to set up three scenarios to predict the land use structure in 2030.Moreover,the PLUS model was used to simulate spatial distribution.Besides,Spearman correlation coefficient was used to analyze the trade-off synergistic relationship among ESV.Results showed that:(1)The land use types in Baotou City were mainly grassland and cropland.From 2000 to 2020,the construction land increased by 489.2 km2,while cropland and grassland decreased.(2)The overall trend of ESV in Baotou City was decreasing,with grassland being the main provider of ESV.The ESVs for the continuing status scenario(A),investment priority scenario(B),and resource conservation scenario(C)were 46.7137,45.9645,and 47.4183 billion yuan.Climate regulation and hydrological regulation played a major role in ESV.(3)There was a broad and significant synergistic relationship between ESV,and a significant trade-off between food production and other ESVs.Resource conservation scenario can provide reference for optimizing land use and achieving sustainable development.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用/多情景模拟/PLUS模型/包头市Key words
ecosystem services value(ESV)/land use/multi-scenario simulation/PLUS model/Baotou City分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
解铭威,冉藜,贾文贞,周慧荻,王向荣..包头市生态系统服务价值评估与模拟[J].生态科学,2025,44(5):252-261,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3800203) （2022YFC3800203）
