石油钻采工艺2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：621-631,11.DOI:10.13639/j.odpt.202506036
油藏产能预测技术现状与发展趋势
A review of the current status and development of oil reservoir productivity forecast technology
摘要
Abstract
As hydrocarbon reservoir development extends into deeper zones and unconventional resources,the importance of productivity forecast technology in development plans optimization and hazards control has become increasingly prominent.Currently,however,the absence of a systematic review on productivity forecast methods has hindered technical integration and progress in this field.Through a systematic review of the evolution of productivity forecast technologies,this study categorizes these methods into four methodological systems,i.e.:comprehensive qualitative analysis of reservoir parameters,statistical learning-based productivity forecast,deterministic reservoir productivity forecast,and digital-intelligent productivity forecast.The fundamental principles,application scenarios,and limitations of each method are analyzed,and a integrated evaluation index system for productivity forecast is proposed.Research shows that the error in reservoir productivity forecast has been reduced from 30%to 5%,and the field is advancing toward data-intelligent integration and intelligent decision-making.In the future,the efforts would focus on promoting interdisciplinary data integration,hybrid modeling,and standardized evaluation system,so as to enhance the forecast accuracy and applicability.关键词
油藏产能预测/评价指标/定性分析/统计学习/数值模拟/人工智能Key words
oil reservoir productivity forecast/evaluation indicators/qualitative analysis/statistical learning/numerical simulation/artificial intelligence分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
王雪飞,吴立伟,高科超,张兴华,罗鹏,冯佳浩..油藏产能预测技术现状与发展趋势[J].石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):621-631,11.基金项目
中国海洋石油集团有限公司专项"海上深层/超深层油气勘探技术"(编号:KJGG2022-0406) （编号:KJGG2022-0406）
中海油能源发展股份有限公司重大科研专项"地质设计与报告数智化技术研究"(编号:HFKJ-ZD-GJ-2025-06-03). （编号:HFKJ-ZD-GJ-2025-06-03）
