石油钻采工艺2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：632-645,14.DOI:10.13639/j.odpt.202504034
基于改进随机森林算法的卡钻异常预警模型
Stuck pipe anomaly early warning model based on improved random forest algorithms
摘要
Abstract
With the ever increase in drilling depth,the drilling progress has become increasingly complex,and stuck pipe incidents have frequently emerged as a key factor restricting the safety and efficiency of drilling operations.Traditional approaches struggle to promptly identify and effectively warn stuck pipe risks.In recent years,the rise of machine learning algorithms has provided new avenues for the early prediction and prevention of stuck pipe incidents.In this study,a drilling operation condition recognition model was established based on the variation patterns of drilling engineering parameters,providing an operational basis for stuck pipe risk analysis.By analyzing the characteristic parameter variations across stuck pipe anomaly intervals and introducing a moving window mechanism,a computation method for stuck pipe risk coefficient was proposed.Combined with machine learning algorithms,a novel stuck pipe risk early warning model was developed.Comparative results of performance prediction show that the proposed improved random forest model achieves significant advantages in accuracy and lead time,with an average prediction accuracy of 86.61%and the ability to deliver warnings 6 to 10 minutes before a stuck pipe incident occurs.An intelligent stuck pipe risk early warning system was developed based on this methodology,offering technical and software support for field applications.The findings provide a new approach for early warning of stuck pipe risks and offer new insights into data-driven stuck pipe prediction models based on machine learning algorithms.关键词
卡钻预警/改进随机森林/机器学习/钻井/智能预警Key words
stuck pipe early warning/improved random forest/machine learning/drilling/intelligent warning分类
计算机与自动化引用本文复制引用
曾治友,苏堪华,廖原凯,简旭,卓云,汪勇..基于改进随机森林算法的卡钻异常预警模型[J].石油钻采工艺,2025,47(5):632-645,14.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金"连续管钻井(塞)管柱底部激振波及规律和振扭耦合多轴疲劳研究"(编号:cstc2019jcyjmsxmX0199) （塞）
中石油川庆钻探工程公司重点科研项目"川东北高含硫区域安全钻井关键技术与提速技术深化研究"(编号:CQ2024B-5-Z1-3). （编号:CQ2024B-5-Z1-3）
