铁道标准设计2025，Vol.69Issue(10)：209-219,11.DOI:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202505300010
花岗岩地层风化蚀变型突水突泥灾害多阶段变权重风险评估模型研究
A Multi-Stage Variable-Weight Risk Assessment Model for Weathering and Alteration-Induced Water Inrush and Mud Inrush Hazard in Granite Strata
摘要
Abstract
Water and mud inrush in weathered and altered granite strata is a severe geological hazard triggered by the weathering and alteration of water-rich rock masses in deep-buried tunnels in Southwest China.To address this disaster in tunnels through weathered and altered granite strata on the Southwest Plateau,a multi-stage dynamic risk assessment method for such strata was proposed.By analyzing the disaster-causing mechanisms,a strong-incentive-weak-penalty state variable weight vector function was constructed based on variable weight theory,and a risk assessment model integrating dynamic weight response was then established.Using a case study of a tunnel engineering case in Southwest China,the verification indicated that the model demonstrated a more accurate prediction of water and mud inrush hazard in tunnels through weathered and altered granite strata compared to traditional fixed-weight methods,effectively addressing the"pseudo-safety"issue caused by static evaluation.The study revealed the occurrence patterns of water and mud inrush in high-altitude weathered and altered strata,providing theoretical tools and practical paradigms for safe tunnel construction under complex geological conditions.The application verification results for the water and mud inrush risk level of shaft No.2 of the tunnel showed that the dynamic risk assessment model for water and mud inrush achieved an accuracy rate of 88％.关键词
隧道工程/风化蚀变型/突水突泥灾害/变权重理论/多阶段风险评估Key words
tunnel engineering/weathering and alteration/water and mud inrush/variable weight theory/multi-stage risk assessment分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
丁帅,张德华,苑博程,霍世琦,嵇逸飞..花岗岩地层风化蚀变型突水突泥灾害多阶段变权重风险评估模型研究[J].铁道标准设计,2025,69(10):209-219,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(C23B05300250) （C23B05300250）
