中国电机工程学报2025，Vol.45Issue(19)：7565-7574,中插33,11.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240863
基于门控循环加权共形分位数回归的风电功率短期区间预测
Short-term Wind Power Interval Prediction Based on Weighted Gated Recurrent Conformalized Quantile Regression
摘要
Abstract
Accurate interval prediction is helpful for risk analysis,enabling more reasonable decisions in power grid dispatch.Aiming at the shortcomings of conformalized quantile regression algorithm,this paper proposes a short-term wind power interval prediction method based on weighted gated recurrent conformalized quantile regression.Firstly,the quantile gated recurrent unit is used to fit the initial prediction interval in the training stage.The non-conformity and their confidence quantiles are then calculated in the calibration stage according to the non-conformity function.Then,in the test stage,the Jensen-Shannon divergency between the test set and the calibration set is calculated and weighted to the confidence quantile as the distribution weight.Therefore,a weighted confidence quantile is formed instead of the confidence quantile directly obtained from the calibration set.The final prediction interval is the algebraic sum of the initial prediction interval and the weighted confidence quantile.Finally,taking the operation data of wind farm in MengXi,China as an example,the reliability,validity and efficiency of proposed method is examined.关键词
门控循环单元/共形分位数回归/Jensen-Shannon散度/加权置信分位数/风电功率区间预测Key words
gated recurrent unit/conformalized quantile regression/Jensen-Shannon divergence/weighted confidence quantile/wind power interval prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨茂,张书天,王勃,苏欣..基于门控循环加权共形分位数回归的风电功率短期区间预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2025,45(19):7565-7574,中插33,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(20240402070GH).National Key R&D Program of China(20240402070GH). （20240402070GH）
