中国防汛抗旱2025，Vol.35Issue(10)：18-23,6.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025203
基于预报—调度—演进模型的水库洪水风险分析
Reservoir flood risk analysis based on forecasting scheduling evolution model
摘要
Abstract
As extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change,reservoirs face growing challenges in flood control scheduling.Taking the Xiaogang watershed in Songyang County,Zhejiang Province as the research area,hydrological forecasting models,reservoir scheduling models,hydrodynamic models,and flood risk analysis models were constructed.Based on actual reservoir scheduling and historical flood cases,the forecasting models were calibrated and validated.The research results indicate that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and optimize reservoir scheduling strategies to reduce the impact of flood disasters on downstream areas.This study not only provides scientific technical support for reservoir flood control and scheduling,but also provides new theoretical support and practical guidance for improving the emergency response and disaster prevention capabilities of water resource management.关键词
洪水风险/洪水预报/水库调度/水动力模型/浙江省Key words
flood risk/flood forecasting/reservoir scheduling/hydrodynamic model/Zhejiang Province分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
刘正风,刘洋,刘媛媛,端木雪妍,金菊香..基于预报—调度—演进模型的水库洪水风险分析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(10):18-23,6.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金(2022J05120). （2022J05120）
