中国工程科学2025，Vol.27Issue(5)：279-293,15.DOI:10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.08.035
人本协同城市早期预警体系的建设思路与发展策略
A People-Centered Collaborative Framework and Development Strategies for Urban Early-Warning Systems
摘要
Abstract
The combination of climate change and rapid urbanization has led to the emergence of multi-hazard,cascading,and fast-evolving urban disasters in China.The final stage of early warning information transmission,from"reaching individuals ‒ understanding ‒acting,"remains a prominent shortcoming.This study,adhering to the view that"people are both recipients of warning services and active participants,"proposes a people-centered collaborative framework and development strategies for urban early-warning systems(EWS),serving as a localized practice of the United Nation's Early Warnings for All initiative.Building on the clarification of urban EWS concepts and the orientation of people-centered collaboration,we identify the current conditions and challenges of developing such systems.The challenges include insufficient identification and response to cascading hazard chains,inadequate impact-based prediction and conversion into actions,and lack of institutionalized public participation and good-faith immunity.We also highlight development opportunities arising from policy momentum,technological advances,and widespread digital endpoints.An integrated construction framework is proposed,featuring a core structure of"three-tier actors ‒ twin-chain support ‒ technology enablement,"together with an analysis of key elements and their coupling.Finally,we suggest development strategies including building unified data and technology foundations with closed-loop capacities,improving institutional design to clarify responsibilities with adequate safeguards,strengthening community-based organization and mobilization,and advancing through piloting,evaluation,scaling-up,and continuous improvement.These approaches collectively aim to enhance China's urban early-warning capabilities.关键词
早期预警体系/城市/人本协同/级联危险/基于影响的预测/善意免责Key words
early warning systems/urban/people-centered collaboration/cascading hazards/impact-based prediction/good-faith immunity分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
欧阳敏,程泽楷,张亦琼,马佳欣,李志远,罗凌,谢思琴,王红卫,丁烈云..人本协同城市早期预警体系的建设思路与发展策略[J].中国工程科学,2025,27(5):279-293,15.基金项目
中国工程院咨询项目"城市安全面临的挑战及对策"(2022-JB-02) （2022-JB-02）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3805104) （2023YFC3805104）
国家自然科学基金项目(72371109,71821001) Chinese Academy of Engineering project"The Challenges and Countermeasures of Urban Safety"(2022-JB-02) （72371109,71821001）
National Key R&D Program of China(2023YFC3805104) （2023YFC3805104）
National Natural Science Fund Project(72371109,71821001) （72371109,71821001）
