农学学报2025，Vol.15Issue(10)：70-74,5.
陇东苹果腐烂病发生机理分析及预报模型建立
Analysis of Occurrence Mechanism of Apple Rot Disease in Longdong and Establishment of Forecast Model
摘要
Abstract
This study selected the meteorological observation data of Ningxian County,which is the largest and most representative apple planting area in Longdong from 2011 to 2023,and the apple rot disease data of Ningxian Agricultural Technology Extension Centertoanalyze the occurrence mechanism of apple rot disease in Longdongusing statistical and correlation analysis methods.The results showed that apple rot disease of the most severe impact on production occurred in spring,starting in late March,with the highest incidence from April to May and a significant decrease in June;the interannual variation showed that 2011-2013 was the period with a high incidence of apple rot disease and an increasing trend year by year.The occurrence area of apple rot disease showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2019,2018 was the lowest value in 13 years,2020 was the year of apple rot disease outbreak,and the incidence area of apple rot disease gradually decreased from 2021 to 2023;the average temperature during the flowering period had a positive impact on rot disease,while during the swelling period,it had a negative impact;the highest temperature during the fruit enlargement period had a negative impact on rot disease;the lowest temperature at each stage had a negative impact on rot disease;the average relative humidity had a negative impact during the flowering period and a positive impact during the fruit enlargement period.The impact of precipitation on rot disease was mainly manifested in a positive impact during the fruit enlargement period;wind speed and sunlight had a positive impact during the flowering period and a negative impact during the fruit enlargement period;a regression model was established for the high incidence period in spring based on significant meteorological factors,and the established regression model was tested.The fitted values were consistent with the measured results,indicating that the established prediction model can be applied to the prediction of rot disease.This study is of great significance for improving the output value of Longdong fruit industry and promoting rural economic revitalization.关键词
苹果腐烂病/气象因子/相关性分析/多元线性回归模型/均方根检验Key words
apple rots disease/meteorological factors/correlation analysis/multiple linear regression model/model validation分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
张洪芬,邱宁刚,李祥科..陇东苹果腐烂病发生机理分析及预报模型建立[J].农学学报,2025,15(10):70-74,5.基金项目
甘肃省庆阳市自然科学基金农业重大科研项目"气象因子对陇东苹果病虫害发生的影响及预测预报研究"(QY-STK-2023A-S082) （QY-STK-2023A-S082）
甘肃省气象局科研项目"陇东果园春季晚霜冻防治技术措施研究"(ZcMs2024-G-27). （ZcMs2024-G-27）
