中南林业科技大学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(10)：49-58,10.DOI:10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2025.10.005
基于气候和土壤因子的华北落叶松单木枯死模型构建
Individual tree mortality model for Larix principis-rupprechtii based on climate and soil factors
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Considering that the forest ecosystem is facing severe challenges with the intensification of global climate change,this study takes climate and soil factors as the main factors affecting the probability of tree death,establishes a model of the probability of tree death of Larix principis-rupprechtii,and explores the interaction between climate factors and soil factors and the probability of tree death.[Method]Taking the Larix principis-rupprechtii forest in Boqiang forest farm,Wutai mountain,Shanxi Province as the research object,the long-term climatic factors data,the sample plot per tree gauge data and the data of related soil factors were collected.After the equilibrium dataset was optimized by SMOTE(Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique)sampling,The stepwise regression method was used to screen out the key predictors of variance expansion factor(VIF)less than 5,and the prediction model of the death probability of Larix principis-rupprechtii was established by Logistic regression and Bayesian Logistic regression methods.[Result]The results showed that the four environmental factors of crown width,soil pH value,soil NH4+-N concentration and MCMT(mean coldest month temperature)contributed significantly to the mortality of Larix principis-rupprechtii.From the ranking of factors influencing variable importance,there is no significant difference between Logistic model and Bayesian Logistic regression model,among which the importance factors of the variables were the highest in soil pH and crown width,and the importance of MCMT and soil NH4+-N concentration was low.The crown width and MCMT factors were negatively correlated with the mortality probability model,and with the growth of crown amplitude and the increase of monthly mean coldest temperature,the probability of tree death decreased.Soil pH value and NH4+-N were positively correlated with the withering probability model,and the probability of tree death increased with the increase of the disease.In model performance evaluation,the logistic regression model demonstrated better overall performance,with accuracy,sensitivity,F1-score,and Kappa coefficient values of 0.885,0.797,0.875,and 0.771,respectively.The Bayesian logistic regression model performed better in terms of precision and specificity,achieving 0.979 and 0.983,respectively.Moreover,both models achieved AUC-ROC values above 0.9,indicating strong predictive accuracy.[Conclusion]Climate and soil factors have significant contributions to the probability of tree death,and the resulting model has good prediction accuracy,so it is of great significance to consider climate and soil factors in the probability model of tree death.The model can provide a scientific basis for forest management and ecological protection in north China,help formulate more reasonable and perfect forest health monitoring and emergency response measures,and provide a reference for the sustainable management of Larix principis-rupprechtii forests in north China.关键词
气候因子/土壤因子/枯死模型/华北落叶松Key words
climatic factors/soil factors/tree mortality model/Larix principis-rupprechtii分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邹威,杨昊,杨虎义,杨朝晖..基于气候和土壤因子的华北落叶松单木枯死模型构建[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2025,45(10):49-58,10.基金项目
山西省重点研发计划项目(202102090301007). （202102090301007）
