电力需求侧管理2025，Vol.27Issue(6)：58-64,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.06.009
"双碳"背景下基于模糊自回归分布滞后模型的电力需求预测方法研究
Research on the method of electricity demand prediction based on fuzzy autoregressive distributed lag model under the background of"dual carbon"
摘要
Abstract
Driven by the"dual carbon"goal,significant changes will occur in social and economic development,energy production,and consumption structure,leading to new characteristics in factors and trends affecting electricity de-mand forecasting.The power industry is a key area to ensure the practical achievement of the"dual carbon"goals,so research needs to be conducted on electricity demand fore-casting method under the new situation.Logarithmic mean index method(LMDI)and path analysis method are used to study the influenc-ing factors of electricity demand under the background of"dual carbon",and extracts three carbon emission related influencing factors of electricity demand:electrification rate,clean energy generation ratio,and energy intensity.A method for predicting electricity demand based on fuzzy autoregressive distributed lag model is proposed.The regression coefficients are fuzzified on the basis of the autoregressive distributed lag model considering policy lag effects.By establishing a mini-mum fuzziness optimization model,the regression parameters with the least uncertainty are obtained,which improved the accuracy of long-term electricity demand prediction under the background of"dual carbon".Based on the historical data of China's socio-economy and electricity demand,and in combination with the national policy objectives,the electricity demand in China under different low-carbon paths has been predicted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the power demand forecasting method proposed in this article.关键词
"双碳"目标/电力需求预测/对数平均迪式分解模型/模糊自回归分布滞后模型/模糊度优化Key words
"dual carbon"target/electricity demand prediction/LMDI decomposition/fuzzy autoregressive distributed lag model/fuzzy op-timization分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
缪源诚,秦康平,滕晓毕,宋柄兵,顾洁,韦宁,温洪林.."双碳"背景下基于模糊自回归分布滞后模型的电力需求预测方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(6):58-64,7.基金项目
国家电网有限公司华东分部科技项目(项目编号:52992424001A) （项目编号:52992424001A）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52307119) （52307119）
