董国强 1张莹 2乔利春 3李淼芊 3雷荣辉 3范翔宇 3刘莹 4卫欣欣 4韩晶3
作者信息
- 1. 兵器工业卫生研究所,陕西 西安 710065||西安交通大学医学部公共卫生学院,陕西 西安 710061||西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西 西安 710055
- 2. 兵器工业卫生研究所,陕西 西安 710065||西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西 西安 710055
- 3. 西安交通大学医学部公共卫生学院,陕西 西安 710061
- 4. 兵器工业卫生研究所,陕西 西安 710065
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[Background]China is a major coal producer and consumer country in the world.Coal workers'pneumoconiosis(CWP)is a primary factor endangering the occupational health of coal miners.Research on the disease burden of CWP and its changing trend is significant for disease prevention&control and associated policies.
[Objective]To analyze the disease burden of CWP in China from 1990 to 2021 and its changing trend,and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035.
[Methods]Using the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)database of 2021,numbers of incident cases,prevalent cases,deaths,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)as well as crude and age-standardized rates of CWP in China were retrieved.Linear regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)of the age-stan-dardized rates.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and the disease burden of different sexes and age groups,and Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to forecast the trend of CWP disease burden.
[Results]In 1990,the incident,prevalent,and deaths cases of CWP in China were 3266,18872,and 1561,respectively,and the DALYs of CWP were 44614.718 person-years.In 2021,the incident,prevalent,and deaths cases of CWP were 3446,23975,and 1229,respective-ly,and the DALYs of CWP were 29610.754 person-years.From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALYs rates of CWP in China all showed a downward trend,with the EAPCs of-3.121%,-2.532%,-4.018%,and-4.268%,respectively.The disease burden of CWP in China was mainly concentrated in the male population.The annual average percent change analysis indicated that each standardized rate showed a fluctuating downward trend in different periods.The BAPC model showed that from 2022 to 2035,the age-standardized rates of CWP in China would continue to decline steadily.In 2035,the age-standardized incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALYs rates of CWP would be reduced to 0.10 per 100000,0.74 per 100000,0.03 per 100000,and 0.74 per 100000,re-spectively.
[Conclusion]The disease burden contributed by CWP in China generally show a downward trend from 1990 to 2021,and it is expected that the age-standardized rates will continue to decline steadily from 2022 to 2035.关键词
煤工尘肺/疾病负担/趋势预测/伤残调整寿命年/贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
coal workers'pneumoconiosis/burden of disease/trend prediction/disability-adjusted life years/Bayesian age-period-cohort model分类
预防医学
