农业资源与环境学报2025，Vol.42Issue(6)：1648-1657,10.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2024.0706
基于粮食安全贡献度的新疆耕地与粮食供求格局变化及影响研究
Changes and impacts of cultivated land and grain supply and demand pattern in Xinjiang based on the degree of food security contribution
摘要
Abstract
To explore Xinjiang cultivated land and grain supply and demand structure changes and its contribution to national food security,and the effects of cultivated land change on food production,this study used land use dynamics to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land and grain planting area in Xinjiang,combined with the consumption statistics method and the contribution degree of food security(FSP)model to estimate the contribution of Xinjiang to the national and regional grain security in Xinjiang,and further clarified the spatio-temporal changes of grain supply and demand in Xinjiang,used sensitivity model to describe the impact of cultivated land area change on grain production from 2000 to 2020.The results showed that,first,the overall cultivated land and grain sown area increased steadily,respectively increasing 2.877×106 hm2 and 8.070×105 hm2;wheat and corn account for about 80%of the area,and the corn planted area increased by nearly one handred percent during 20 years,while the wheat planted area decreased slightly.Second,the grain supply was always greater than demand,and supply and demand gradually transition from a tight balance to a certain surplus space;Third,the contribution of Xinjiang to national food security was always positive,and the average was 2.3%,making a certain contribution.Forth,the contribution of different states to Xinjiang's food security varied significantly in space,and the center of gravity shifted from south to north.Reasonable protection of cultivated land and the positive influence of land planning led to an augment between cultivated land area and grain production.The research shows that scientifically measuring regional grain supply and demand based on the contribution degree of food security is of great significance for promoting regional grain work and formulating relevant policies for ensuring national food security.关键词
耕地变化/粮食供求格局/消费统计法/粮食安全贡献度/新疆Key words
cultivated land change/grain supply and demand pattern/statistical method of consumption/contribution to food security/Xinjiang分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
刘淑欣,帕茹克·吾斯曼江,阿依吐尔逊·沙木西,车丽丽,龚敏,周红涛..基于粮食安全贡献度的新疆耕地与粮食供求格局变化及影响研究[J].农业资源与环境学报,2025,42(6):1648-1657,10.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XJEDU2023J018) （XJEDU2023J018）
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2021D01A82) （2021D01A82）
新疆维吾尔自治区地方公派出国留学项目 Scientific Research Projects of Basic Scientific Research Funds for Colleges and Universities in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(XJEDU2023J018) （XJEDU2023J018）
Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2021D01A82) （2021D01A82）
Local Government-Sponsored Study Abroad Program in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China （）
