人口与经济Issue(6)：44-58,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.06.004
中国劳动者失业风险感知变迁
Trends in Perceived Unemployment Risk for Workers in China:A Dynamic Analysis Based on the APC Model
摘要
Abstract
Perceived unemployment risk(PUR)serves as both a subjective reflection of their objective employment situation and a predictive indicator for it.We construct a dynamic analysis framework based on the theory of multiple historical trends.Using data from the Chinese Social Survey from 2013 to 2021,we then decomposed the age,period and cohort effects on PUR for workers in China using the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model.The three core conclusions are as follows.First,regarding the age effect,PUR decreases with increasing age,and this downward trend is concentrated in the early stages of workers'careers.Further analysis reveals that the accumulation of work experience and social capital constitutes a key factor contributing to the significant decline in PUR during the early career phase.Second,in terms of the period effect,PUR exhibited a year-on-year increase between 2013 and 2021.This trend is primarily driven by the rapid transformation of employment patterns fueled by the development of the digital economy,whereas the rise in labor costs and changes in international trade conditions make relatively smaller contributions.Third,with respect to the cohort effect,the generation born around 1960 has the lowest PUR,while the generation born between 1975 and 1985 faces relatively higher PUR.The underlying reasons are as follows:the 1960s-born cohort faced low unemployment rates and minimal peer competition pressure during their early careers,and their labor quality was well-aligned with the industrial structure.These factors collectively resulted in lower PUR.In contrast,the 1975-1985-born cohort experienced relatively high unemployment rates in their early careers,and a mismatch emerged between their labor quality and the industrial structure,leading to structural unemployment and consequently higher PUR.These findings provide empirical evidence for managing unemployment risk and have important policy implications for achieving high-quality and full employment in the new era.关键词
失业风险感知/高质量充分就业/APC模型/劳动力Key words
perceived unemployment risk/high-quality and full employment/age-period-cohort model/labor force分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吕风光,张顺..中国劳动者失业风险感知变迁[J].人口与经济,2025,(6):44-58,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"新形势下我国面临的主要就业风险及多维治理研究"(21&ZD181). （21&ZD181）
