人口与经济Issue(6)：59-72,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.06.005
生育友好视域下我国托育政策的时空嬗变特征与优化向度
The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Optimization Direction of China's Childcare Policies from a Fertility-friendly Perspective:An LDA Topic Modeling Analysis Based on 397 Policy Texts from 31 Provinces
摘要
Abstract
As a critical component of building a fertility-friendly society,high-quality childcare services for children aged 0-3 have become a national strategy,a family concern,and a core policy issue for ensuring sustainable population development.This study employs content analysis and integrates the framework of supply-side,environmental,and demand-side policy tools to explore the thematic evolution and pathways of 397 local childcare policy texts from 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2019 to 2024,using LDA topic modeling.From the perspective of fertility-friendliness,the study further investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and optimization directions of China's childcare policy.The findings reveal that the temporal evolution of childcare policy can be divided into three stages:The initial framework establishment and universal launch period(2019-2020),the supply expansion and system deepening period(2021-2022),and the quality-led and diversified exploration period(2023-2024).In terms of spatial distribution,it further exhibits the uneven structure of policy tools,with a shortage and delay in the provision of fertility demand tools;regional policy differentiation and imbalance are evident,with significant disparities in childcare outcomes between the eastern and western regions;The fertility-friendly orientation is becoming clearer,while the synergy between supply and demand mechanisms urgently needs strengthening.To accelerate the construction of a fertility-friendly society and achieve comprehensive high-quality development of the childcare service system,it is necessary to optimize the structure of policy tools to enhance the leading role of fertility support,track evolutionary trends to build a fertility-friendly universal system,and precisely match supply and demand relationships to promote balanced and high-quality regional development.关键词
托育政策/政策工具/LDA主题建模/时空嬗变/优化向度Key words
childcare policies/policy tools/LDA topic modeling/spatiotemporal evolution/optimization directions分类
社会学引用本文复制引用
洪秀敏,吕阳..生育友好视域下我国托育政策的时空嬗变特征与优化向度[J].人口与经济,2025,(6):59-72,14.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金第76批面上资助项目"财政支持普惠托育发展绩效的路径测度与长效机制研究"(2024M760226). （2024M760226）
