人口与经济Issue(6)：73-85,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.06.006
生育成本—效用分析七十年
A Review of Fertility Cost-Utility Analysis:Seventy Years of Literature and Theoretical Development
摘要
Abstract
The cost-utility analysis of fertility,which originated in western economics in the 1950s,has provided an important theoretical foundation for understanding household fertility decision-making.As China's fertility decision-making mechanism has shifted from state-policy dominance to greater individual autonomy,this framework noted for its ability to explain rational fertility behavior has gained increasing academic attention domestically.This paper systematically reviews the evolution of fertility cost-utility theory over the past seventy years,organizing and evaluating theoretical developments through a dual analytical lens of research perspective(demand vs.supply-demand interaction)and level of analysis(micro vs.macro).The study finds that the theory has evolved into four main research paradigms:micro-static demand,micro-dynamic supply-demand,macro-demand,and macro-supply-demand,reflecting a shift from unidimensional rational decision-making toward a more integrated,multi-factor,and interdisciplinary framework.Although the theory has been widely applied in empirical studies in China,particularly in research on second-child decisions,where it demonstrates strong explanatory power,notable limitations remain.Most studies remain confined to traditional household economics frameworks,emphasizing isolated variables while overlooking systematic integration of cultural,institutional,and cognitive factors.Moreover,heavy reliance on empirical analysis has led to underdeveloped theoretical construction,inconsistent conceptual definitions,and limited comparability across findings.In the future,interdisciplinary efforts should strengthen holistic theoretical development and establish a localized system for measuring fertility costs and utilities,thereby providing deeper scholarly support for understanding China's low fertility rates.关键词
生育成本效用/生育经济理论/生育决策/孩子价值/理论述评Key words
fertility cost-utility/economic theory of fertility/fertility decision/value of children/theoretical review分类
社会学引用本文复制引用
汤兆云,周游..生育成本—效用分析七十年[J].人口与经济,2025,(6):73-85,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"三孩政策背景下生育成本—效用对城乡居民生育决策的影响"(23BRK028). （23BRK028）
