人口与经济Issue(6)：121-136,16.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.06.009
中国家庭养老脆弱性的时空演化与收敛分析
The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Convergence Analysis of the Family-based Elderly Care Vulnerability in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the"Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability"framework of IPCC,this paper uses CHARLS data from 2011 to 2018 to construct an index system for measuring family-based elderly care vulnerability.The Dagum Gini coefficient and variance decomposition method are used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution differences of family-based elderly care vulnerability in China and the three major regions.The convergence characteristics are revealed by relying on the coefficient of variation and Markov state transition analysis method.Research has found:1)The overall family-based elderly care vulnerability in China remains at a relatively low level,showing a steady decline from 2011 to 2018 and exhibiting strong regional imbalances and structural instability.Among them,the vulnerability levels in the eastern,central,and western regions are increasing in a stepwise manner.At the structural level,the vulnerability levels of various dimensions in the country,from low to high,are adaptability,risk exposure and sensitivity,which reflects that the family-based elderly care vulnerability is deeply influenced by the regional differentiation characteristics of economic society and elderly care security development levels.2)Regional differences are the main source of overall regional differences in the vulnerability of family elderly care;Meanwhile,the largest source of structural differences is sensitivity dimension differences.The central region shows a risk exposure induced fragility type,while the eastern and western regions show a sensitivity induced fragility type.3)The convergence trend test results show that the vulnerability of family elderly care in the eastern and central regions has σ convergence characteristics,while there is no significant convergence phenomenon in the western region,and the future elderly care situation will be more severe.The Markov state transition analysis shows that the possibility of maintaining"club convergence"for the vulnerability of families elderly care across the country and regions is relatively small.The provincial family elderly care vulnerability will be long-term dispersed in four state spaces of high,medium high,medium low,and low,without a trend characteristic of stable distribution.The research conclusion will provide empirical evidence for clearly understanding the structural characteristics and risk evolution patterns of family elderly care in China,which has important implications for improving differentiated resilience governance policies for family elderly care in various regions.关键词
家庭养老/养老脆弱性/时空演化/收敛机制/家庭养老韧性Key words
family-based elderly care/elderly care vulnerability/spatiotemporal evolution/convergence mechanism/resilience of family-based elderly care分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
文敏,李磊,王震..中国家庭养老脆弱性的时空演化与收敛分析[J].人口与经济,2025,(6):121-136,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金西部项目"西南边疆农村地区家庭养老脆弱性研究"(25XSH030). （25XSH030）
